Supply security is a prominent and crucial notion which finds application in various economic sectors (energy security, food security, supply chain risks). Yet, it remains particularly difficult to define and measure. Currently used indicators of supply security focus on narrow approaches and offer limited guidance to policy makers. Considering this, we propose a novel indicator assessing the supply security of industries, conceptually or physically, based on a network structure. The indicator is based on a simulation methodology and evaluates the reaction of the market to disruptions of its network services, thereby capturing the various dimensions of supply security. Subsequently, we perform an exemplary application onto the European natural gas market, and evaluate the impact of currently debated network extensions projects and policy measures.

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Natural gas plays an important role in many European energy systems especially with regard to the envisioned transition towards a less carbon intensive energy supply. Being dependent on importsespecially from Russiathis raises questions about the future development and security of Europe's gas supply. Using a numerical network model of the European gas system we assess 1) the potential impact of infrastructure extensions for Europe's gas supply and 2) the role of supply security policies in coping with a disruption of Russian imports via the Ukraine. Our results indicate that overall the European gas infrastructure is sufficient for average market conditions. Due to the strong dependency on Russian imports, however, disruptions during the winter months could lead to load curtailment. Projected network extension (Southern Gas Corridor, Nord Stream 2, and new LNG terminals) or a strategic storage policy coordinated across Europe has the potential to reduce this shortage. The positive impact of an extended network, however, also depends on the capability of the global gas market to provide flexible gas that can be reallocated towards Europe. The majority of demand curtailment can already by countered by a relatively modest amount of strategic storage (20% to 30%) if their use during crisis situations is coordination across European countries.