Objective-Research on the relationship of depression to mortality has yielded mixed results. Limitations of previous studies include mostly one-time assessment of depression, short follow-ups, and failure to model changes in depression appropriately. We attempted to use a joint modeling approach to examining the association between longitudinal changes in depressive symptoms and mortality.Methods-Data were obtained from the Florida Retirement Study, a prospective cohort study of community-dwelling oldest old individuals. At baseline, 879 people (M age = 80.6, 65.8% women) had comprehensive psychosocial assessment, including the Center of Epidemiological StudiesDepression Scale (CES-D). They were then assessed annually up to 11 years. Longitudinal changes of CES-D, modeled by a joint modeling approach of repeated measures and survival data, were used to predict mortality at follow-up (15 years after baseline), while adjusting for five classes of covariates.Results-Total mortality rate was 69.9%. CES-D at baseline was not predictive of mortality at 15-year follow-up after adjusting for baseline covariates. The joint modeling revealed that an annual increase of one point in CES-D scores over the years was associated with a 57% higher risk of mortality (HR = 1.57, p<.001) at follow-up. Compared to those whose CES-D scores were stable over time, subjects with increasing CED-D scores over time had a 70% increase in mortality risk, p<.001, and their median survival time was 4 years shorter.Conclusion-Although baseline CES-D was not predictive of mortality, the increase in depressive symptoms over time was associated with higher mortality. It is important to assess longitudinal changes in depression.
KeywordsDepression; Mortality; Longitudinal Study; Joint Modeling; Elderly; Community Sample Depression is a common psychiatric condition that is prevalent in both younger and older populations (1). It is a disabling as well as deadly disorder. Depression may negatively affect health and mortality via multiple mechanisms (2-6), such as decreased heart rate variability, Corresponding author: Jian-Ping Zhang, MD, PhD, Department of Psychiatry and Psychology, Cleveland Clinic Foundation, 9500 Euclid Avenue, Desk P57, Cleveland, OH 44195, jpzhang2005@gmail.com.
NIH Public Access Author ManuscriptPsychosom Med. Author manuscript; available in PMC 2010 September 1.
Published in final edited form as:Psychosom Med. 2009 September ; 71(7): 704-714. doi:10.1097/PSY.0b013e3181ac9bce.
NIH-PA Author ManuscriptNIH-PA Author Manuscript NIH-PA Author Manuscript chronic activation of the Hypothalamus-Pituitary-Adrenal system, sedentary life style, reduced ability of self-care, and treatment non-compliance (7). These may be coupled with medical comorbidities such as coronary heart disease (CHD), which place them at a higher risk of mortality. Previous research has shown that depression is a risk factor for developing CHD (8,9), and is also associated with increased mortality among patients after their first episode of myocardial inf...