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Landslide dams are a common phenomenon. They form when a landslide reaches the bottom of a river valley causing a blockage. The first effect of such a dam is the infilling of a lake that inundates the areas upstream, while the possibility of a sudden dam collapse, with a rapid release of the impounded waters, poses a higher flood risk to the downstream areas.The results of the main inventories carried out to date on landslide dams, have been examined to determine criteria for forecasting landslide dam evolution with particular emphasis on the assessment of dam stability. Not all landslides result in the blockage of a river channel. This only occurs with ones that can move a large amount of material with moderate or high-velocities. In most cases, these landslides are triggered by rainfall events or high magnitude earthquakes. A relationship also exists between the volume of the displaced material and the landslide dam stability.Several authors have proposed that landslide dam behaviour can be forecast by defining various geomorphological indexes, that result from the combination of variables identifying both the dam and the dammed river channel. Further developments of this geomorphological approach are presented in this paper by the definition of a dimensionless blockage index. Starting with an analysis of 84 episodes selected worldwide, it proved to be a useful tool for making accurate predictions concerning the fate of a landslide dam.

We present the methodologies adopted and the outcomes obtained in the analysis of landslide risk in the basin of the Arno River (Central Italy) in the framework of a project sponsored by the Basin Authority of the Arno River, started in the year 2002 and completed at the beginning of 2005. In particular, a complete set of methods and applications for the assessment of landslide susceptibility and risk are described and discussed.A new landslide inventory of the whole area was realized, using conventional (aerial-photo interpretation and field surveys) and nonconventional methods (e.g. remote sensing techniques such as DIn-SAR and PS-InSAR).The great majority of the mapped mass movements are rotational slides (75%), solifluctions and other shallow slow movements (17%) and flows (5%), while soil slips, and other rapid landslides, seem less frequent everywhere within the basin. The relationships between landslide characteristics and environmental factors have been assessed through statistical analysis. As expected, the results show a strong control of land cover, lithology and morphology on landslide occurrence. The landslide frequency-size distribution shows a typical scaling behaviour already underlined in other landslide inventories worldwide. The assessment of landslide hazard in terms of probability of occurrence in a given time, based for mapped landslides on direct and indirect observations of the state of activity and recurrence time, has been extended to landslide-free areas through the application of statistical methods implemented in an artificial neural network (ANN). Unique conditions units (UCU) were defined by the map overlay of landslide preparatory factors (lithology, land cover, slope gradient, slope curvature and upslope contributing area) and afterwards used to construct a series of model vectors for the training and test of the ANN. Various different ANNs were selected throughout the basin, until each UCU was assigned a degree of membership to a susceptibility and a hazard class. Model validation confirms that prediction results are very good, with an average percentage of correctly recognized mass movements of about 85%. The analysis also revealed the existence of a large number of unmapped mass movements, thus contributing to the completeness of the final inventory. Temporal hazard was estimated via the translation of state of activity in recurrence time and hence probability of occurrence. The following intersection of hazard values with vulnerability and exposure figures, obtained by reclassification of digital vector mapping at 1:10,000 scale, lead to the definition of risk values for each terrain unit for different periods of time into the future. The final results of the research are now undergoing a process of integration and implementation within land planning and risk prevention policies and practices at local and national level.

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