Objectives: Stage I non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) can be treated with either Stereotactic Body Radiotherapy (SBRT) or Video Assisted Thoracic Surgery (VATS) resection. To support decision making, not only the impact on survival needs to be taken into account, but also on quality of life, costs and cost-effectiveness. Therefore, we performed a cost-effectiveness analysis comparing SBRT to VATS resection with respect to quality adjusted life years (QALY) lived and costs in operable stage I NSCLC. Materials and methods: Patient level and aggregate data from eight Dutch databases were used to estimate costs, health utilities, recurrence free and overall survival. Propensity score matching was used to minimize selection bias in these studies. A microsimulation model predicting lifetime outcomes after treatment in stage I NSCLC patients was used for the cost-effectiveness analysis.Model outcomes for the two treatments were overall survival, QALYs, and total costs. We used a Dutch health care perspective with 1.5 % discounting for health effects, and 4 % discounting for costs, using 2018 cost data. The impact of model parameter uncertainty was assessed with deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Results: Patients receiving either VATS resection or SBRT were estimated to live 5.81 and 5.86 discounted QALYs, respectively. Average discounted lifetime costs in the VATS group were €29,269 versus €21,175 for SBRT. Difference in 90-day excess mortality between SBRT and VATS resection was the main driver for the difference in QALYs. SBRT was dominant in at least 74 % of the probabilistic simulations. Conclusion: Using a microsimulation model to combine available evidence on survival, costs, and health utilities in a cost-effectiveness analysis for stage I NSCLC led to the conclusion that SBRT dominates VATS resection in the majority of simulations.

A small but not statistically significant difference in health utility was found between patients with stage I NSCLC treated with surgery and those treated with SBRT. Current analysis strengthens existing evidence that SBRT is an equivalent treatment option for early-stage NSCLC. Comparative cost-effectiveness remains to be determined.

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Metachronous oligo-metastatic disease is variably defined as one to five metastases detected after a disease-free interval and treatment of the primary tumour with curative intent. Oligo-metastases in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) are often treated with curative intent. However additional metastases are often detected later in time, and 5-year survival is low. Burdensome surgical treatment in patients with undetected metastases may be avoided if patients with high versus lowrisk of undetected metastases can be separated.Because there is no clinical data on undetected metastases available, a microsimulation-model of the development and detection of metastases in 100.000 stage I NSCLC patients with a controlled primary tumour was constructed. The model uses data from the literature as well as patient-level data. Calibration was used for unobservable model parameters. Metastases can be detected by a scheduled scan, or an unplanned scan when the patient develops symptoms. The observable information at time of detection is used to identify subgroups of patients with different risk of undetectable metastases. We identified size and number of detected oligo-metastases, as well as presence of symptoms to be the most important risk predictors. Based on these predictors, patients could be divided into a low-risk and a high-risk group having a model-based predicted probability of 8.1% and 89.3% to have undetected metastases, respectively. Currently, the model is based on a synthesis of literature data and individual patient-level data that was not collected for the purpose of this study. Optimisation and validation of the model is necessary to allow clinical usability. We describe the type of data that needs to be collected to update our model, as well as the design of such validation study.

Background After curative treatment of primary non–small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC), patients undergo intensive surveillance with the aim to detect recurrences from the primary tumor or metachronous second primary lung cancer as early as possible and improve overall survival. However, the benefit of surveillance is debated. Available evidence is of low quality and conflicting. Microsimulation modeling facilitates the exploration of the impact of different surveillance strategies and provides insight into the cost-effectiveness of surveillance. Methods A microsimulation model was used to simulate a range of computed tomography (CT)–based surveillance schedules, differing in the frequency and duration of CT surveillance. The impact on survival, quality-adjusted life-years, costs, and cost-effectiveness of each schedule was assessed. Results Ten of 108 strategies formed the cost-effectiveness frontier; that is, these were the strategies with the optimal cost-health benefit balance. Per person, the discounted QALYs of these strategies varied between 5.72 and 5.81 years, and discounted costs varied between €9892 and €19,259. Below a willingness-to-pay threshold of €50,000/QALY, no scanning is the preferred option. For a willingness-to-pay threshold of €80,000/QALY, surveillance scanning every 2 y starting 1 y after curative treatment becomes the best option, with €11,860 discounted costs and 5.76 discounted QALYs per person. The European Society for Medical Oncology guideline strategy was more expensive and less effective than several other strategies. Conclusion Model simulations suggest that limited CT surveillance scanning after the treatment of primary NSCLC is cost-effective, but the incremental health-benefit remains marginal. However, model simulations do suggest that the guideline strategy is not cost-effective.