Okun's law postulates an inverse relationship between movements of the unemployment rate and the real gross domestic product (GDP). This article investigates Okun's law for 15 OECD countries and checks for its the structural stability. By using data on employment and the labour force whether structural instability is caused either from the demand side or supply side is inferred.

A previous version of this paper was circulated as "Jumps and Recovery Rates Inferred from Corporate CDS Premia". We are thankful to FIRM@WU for access to their high-performance computing resources as well as friendly support, and to Dow Jones for providing us with complete ICB sector information. AbstractUsing an extensive cross-section of US corporate CDS this paper offers an economic understanding of implied loss given default (LGD) and jumps in default risk. We formulate and underpin empirical stylized facts about CDS spreads, which are then reproduced in our affine intensity-based jump-diffusion model. Implied LGD is well identified, with obligors possessing substantial tangible assets expected to recover more. Sudden increases in the default risk of investment-grade obligors are higher relative to speculative grade. The probability of structural migration to default is low for investment-grade and heavily regulated obligors because investors fear distress rather through rare but devastating events.

Okun's Law postulates an inverse relationship between movements of the unemployment rate and the real gross domestic product (GDP). Empirical estimates for US data indicate that a two t o three percent GDP growth rate above t h e natural or average GDP growth rate causes unemployment to decrease by one percentage point and vice versa. In this investigation we check whether this postulated relationship exhibits structural breaks by means of Markov-Chain Monte Carlo methods. We estimate a regression model, where the parameters are allowed to switch b e t ween di erent states and the switching process is Markov. As a by-product we derive an estimate of the current state within the periods considered. Using quarterly Austrian data on unemployment and real GDP from 1977 to 1995 we infer only one state, i.e. there are no structural breaks. The estimated parameters demand for an excess GDP growth rate of 4.16% to decrease unemployment b y 1 percentage point. Since only one state is inferred, we conclude that the Austrian economy exhibits a stable relationship between unemployment and GDP growth. JEL-Classi cation: D83, D84, G10.

Data augmentation, Identification, Marked point processes, Markov chain Monte Carlo,

Economic development appears to have an impact on the incidence of occupational injuries in Austria. Health policy should emphasize the necessity for safety at work particularly in phases of economic slowdown.