The tobacco industry has adjusted previous estimates of the illicit trade share downwards to create the impression that illicit trade is high and rising. If previous estimates by the tobacco industry were incorrect the credibility of current estimates should be questioned.

Public procurement is a key instrument in the post-apartheid South African government's broad-based black economic empowerment (BBBEE), a legislative and policy framework aimed at reversing the country's legacy of injustice and inequality through pursuing a range of socio-economic objectives that favour the majority black population. This paper employs a theoretical and derived logic model to analyse the design and implementation of BBBEE by means of literature and document review as well as key stakeholder interviews. It seeks to answer two key research questions: (1) has BBBEE achieved its intended outcomes? and (2) what lessons can be drawn from the South African experience for sustainable public procurement? The study finds a significant knowledge gap that precludes definitive conclusions on the impact of BBBEE, largely due to the limited rigorous evidence, particularly evaluations, on whether BBBEE is achieving the desired outcomes. Instead, the paper's key contribution is the development of a derived logic model that clearly outlines how BBBEE is intended to work and is used to provide insight into how BBBEE has performed against aspects of its intended outcomes. The paper finds that the intervention's effectiveness has largely been undermined by various challenges and demonstrates that it remains unclear whether BBBEE's observed achievements have translated into targeted impact of meaningful participation of all black people in the economy. Considering the scale of BBBEE and its implementation for over 16 years, the paper concludes that the limited evidence on how it is performing against its key objectives is both a design and implementation shortcoming.