No abstract

Mitigating climate change requires long-term global efforts. The aim of this study is to simulate the possible paths of CO2 emissions in G20 countries and the world from 2020 to 2050, by using the STIRPAT model and SSP scenarios with different constraints (SSP baseline, SSP-3.4). The results show that: (1) the world’s CO2 emissions cannot peak in the SSP baseline scenarios, but can peak in the SSP-3.4 scenarios through four paths other than the high fossil energy consumption path; (2) for G20 countries, in the SSP baseline scenarios, 13 countries such as China, the United States, and the United Kingdom can achieve the peak, while six countries such as Argentina, India, and Saudi Arabia cannot. In the SSP-3.4 scenarios, Saudi Arabia cannot achieve the peak, while other countries can achieve the peak, and most of them are likely to achieve significant CO2 emission reductions by 2050; (3) climate goals have a crowding-out effect on other sustainable development goals, with less impact on developed countries and a greater impact on developing countries; and (4) the optimization of the energy structure and a low energy intensity can greatly advance the peak time of CO2 emissions.

No abstract

No abstract

After years of emission trading in segmented pilots, China operates a unified market in the power system and plans to involve more industries in the coming future. The aim of this study is to detect the commonalities of transaction behaviors across China’s regional carbon pilots, so as to provide an empirical basis for a future multi-sectoral expansion of national trading. Based on a dataset of daily trading volume in seven regional markets during 2014–2021, the empirical results from connectedness measures show that the total demand connectedness ranges from 10% to 24%, indicating the existence of interactions among China’s regional markets. This not-so-wide range of fluctuation usually shows a trend of rising first and then falling within each year, during which the upward trend is basically related to the accounting, verification and compliance of allowances. After these time nodes, the total connectedness declines. In addition, the directional connectedness could help clarify the specific roles that regional markets play in the variations of total demand connectedness when facing the shocks of these time nodes. Meanwhile, the frequency decomposition reveals that a longer-term component of more than 10 days dominates the connectedness. Based on these findings, some policy implications are provided alongside.