Background To combat the COVID-19 pandemic, nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPI) were implemented worldwide, which impacted a broad spectrum of acute respiratory infections (ARI). Methods Etiologically diagnostic data from 142 559 cases with ARIs, who were tested for eight viral pathogens (influenza virus, IFV; respiratory syncytial virus, RSV; human parainfluenza virus, HPIV; human adenovirus; human metapneumovirus; human coronavirus, HCoV; human bocavirus, HBoV, and human rhinovirus, HRV) between 2012 and 2021, were analyzed to assess the changes of respiratory infections in China during the first COVID-19 pandemic year compared to pre-pandemic years. Results Test positive rates of all respiratory viruses decreased during 2020, compared to the average levels during 2012−2019, with changes ranging from -17·2% for RSV to -87·6% for IFV. Sharp decreases mostly occurred between February and August when massive NPIs remained active, although HRV rebounded to the historical level during the summer. While IFV and HMPV were consistently suppressed year round, RSV, HPIV, HCoV, HRV HBov resurged and went beyond historical levels during September, 2020−January, 2021, after NPIs were largely relaxed and schools reopened. Resurgence was more prominent among children younger than 18 years and in Northern China. These observations remain valid after accounting for seasonality and long-term trend of each virus. Conclusions Activities of respiratory viral infections were reduced substantially in the early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic, and massive NPIs were likely the main driver. Lifting of NPIs can lead to resurgence of viral infections, particularly in children.
Background Superspreading events (SSEs) played a critical role in fueling the COVID-19 outbreaks. Although it is well-known that COVID-19 epidemics exhibited substantial superspreading potential, little is known about the risk of observing SSEs in different contact settings. In this study, we aimed to assess the potential of superspreading in different contact settings in Japan. Method Transmission cluster data from Japan was collected between January and July 2020. Infector-infectee transmission pairs were constructed based on the contact tracing history. We fitted the data to negative binomial models to estimate the effective reproduction number (R) and dispersion parameter (k). Other epidemiological issues relating to the superspreading potential were also calculated. Results The overall estimated R and k are 0.561 (95% CrI: 0.496, 0.640) and 0.221 (95% CrI: 0.186, 0.262), respectively. The transmission in community, healthcare facilities and school manifest relatively higher superspreading potentials, compared to other contact settings. We inferred that 13.14% (95% CrI: 11.55%, 14.87%) of the most infectious cases generated 80% of the total transmission events. The probabilities of observing superspreading events for entire population and community, household, health care facilities, school, workplace contact settings are 1.75% (95% CrI: 1.57%, 1.99%), 0.49% (95% CrI: 0.22%, 1.18%), 0.07% (95% CrI: 0.06%, 0.08%), 0.67% (95% CrI: 0.31%, 1.21%), 0.33% (95% CrI: 0.13%, 0.94%), 0.32% (95% CrI: 0.21%, 0.60%), respectively. Conclusion The different potentials of superspreading in contact settings highlighted the need to continuously monitoring the transmissibility accompanied with the dispersion parameter, to timely identify high risk settings favoring the occurrence of SSEs.
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