Background
In 2014 a national campaign was launched to increase colorectal cancer (CRC) screening rates in the U.S. to 80% by 2018; it is unknown if there is sufficient colonoscopy capacity to reach this goal. We estimate the number of colonoscopies needed to screen 80% of the eligible population with fecal immunochemical testing (FIT) or colonoscopy, and if there is sufficient colonoscopy capacity to meet the need.
Methods
The Microsimulation Screening Analysis-colon (MISCAN-colon) model was used to simulate CRC screening test use in the U.S. (2014–2040), assuming the implementation of a national screening program in 2014 with FIT or colonoscopy with 80% participation. The 2012 Survey of Endoscopic Capacity (SECAP) estimated the number of colonoscopies that were performed and the number that could be performed.
Results
If a national screening program started in 2014, by 2024, approximately 47 million FITs and 5.1 million colonoscopies would be needed annually to screen the eligible population with a program using FIT as the primary screening test; approximately 11 to 13 million colonoscopies would be needed annually to screen the eligible population with a colonoscopy only screening program. Based on the SECAP survey, an estimated 15 million colonoscopies were performed in 2012 and an additional 10.5 million colonoscopies could be performed.
Conclusions
The estimated colonoscopy capacity is sufficient to screen 80% of the eligible U.S. population with FIT, colonoscopy, or a mix of tests. Future analyses should take into account the geographic distribution of colonoscopy capacity.
Use of new straight needle venipuncture instead of IV starts is effective at reducing hemolysis rates in EDs, and is recommended as an evidence-based best practice. The overall strength of evidence rating is high and the effect size is substantial. Unpublished studies made an important contribution to the body of evidence. When IV starts must be used, observed rates of hemolysis may be substantially reduced by placing the IV at the antecubital site.
Whether or not they marry, black adolescent mothers are more likely than whites to attend school following the birth of their first child. Marrying to legitimate a birth reduces the likelihood that a teenager will return to school after childbearing; this impact of marriage is much stronger among black than among white teenagers. The timing of marriage appears to affect school enrollment among white teenagers through its impact on living arrangements. However, the negative impact of marriage on educational achievement does not seem to be a consequence of earlier differences in educational expectations among the teenagers. Teenage mothers appear less likely to separate from their husbands in later years if they marry before the birth than if they marry afterward. Delaying marriage until after the birth has a long-term effect on the probability of separation among white teenage mothers, but has only a short-term impact among blacks. Among teenagers who marry before giving birth, there is little difference in the likelihood of separation between those who marry before becoming pregnant and those who do so afterward. In addition, the effect of the sequence of marriage and first birth among white teenage mothers may have declined in recent years. Adolescent mothers who do not marry before their first birth experience a longer interval between that birth and their second than do those who marry either before or during the pregnancy. These differences are primarily the result of short-term variations in the amount of time they spend married; that is, women who are unmarried when they give birth are less likely to have a second birth soon afterward.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.