Decision making subject to uncertain information, whether fake or factual, in the context of management of socio-technical systems, is critically discussed from both philosophical and operational perspectives. In dealing with possible fake, incorrect and/or factual information we take the perspective that any information utilized as basis for supporting decisions, has to be dealt with in exactly the same manner-in accordance with Bayesian decision analysis. The important issue is to identify and model the scenarios through which information may cause adverse consequences and to account for their potential effects on the system representation applied as basis for decision optimization. To this end we first provide a mapping of how information affects the decision making context and a categorization of causes for information leading to adverse consequences. Secondly, we introduce a decision analytical framework aiming to optimize decision alternatives for managing systems in the context of systems representations including not only one possible system model but a set of different possible system models. As a means for assessing the benefit of collecting additional information, we utilize Value of Information analysis from Bayesian decision analysis. Finally, a principal example is provided which illustrates and discusses selected aspects of how possibly fake information affects decision making and how it might be dealt with.
Substantial increase in research on sustainability and resilience is changing the traditional disciplinary boundaries of risk assessment and management. To understand the implications of this change and define future strategic directions for risk education, we conduct a comprehensive exploratory study of the knowledge domains encompassing risk, sustainability and resilience between 1990 and 2017. Combining quantitative bibliometric techniques such as term co-occurrence and bibliographic coupling, we show the historical evolution of the knowledge domains of risk, sustainability and resilience on a to-date unprecedented scale, based on 442,171 scientific records. Based on a comprehensive background study involving more than 100 cluster network maps, in the present paper, we illustrate the different disciplinary contributions, important authors, geographic distribution of the research, and the organizations producing the research as well as the extent to which they are integrated into the knowledge domain of risk. A complementary qualitative analysis provides context to the concepts and trends identified in the bibliometric analysis, together with an outlined vision for future education in risk, sustainability and resilience science.
The concept of risk as the theoretical and methodological basis for information-consistent ranking of decision alternatives is central for safe, sustainable and resilient societal developments. However, due to significant disparities in the understanding of the concept of risk in academia, and in its application in governance and industry, we argue that a new paradigm for risk must be established. In a sequence of three papers (Part I, Part II and Part III) we take up this challenge, with the leading objective of providing a coherent foundation for the further development and transfer of the general body of knowledge relevant to governance of risk, resilience and sustainabilitythrough research and education. In Part I, the present paper, we first present our motivation and general approach to the problem. Thereafter, we provide an overview and a discussion on the state of research and education in the domain of risk, resilience and sustainability, and propose a generic, information-based hazard classification scheme, which informs the development of a domain ontology and a blueprint for education.
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