Warming in the Arctic has caused the transition from winter to summer to occur weeks earlier over the last half century, yet little is known about whether avian migrants have altered their timing of arrival on breeding areas to match this earlier seasonal transition. Over a 50-yr period, we examined trends in the timing of the first arrival for 16 avian migrant species at the terminus of their northward migration along the central Arctic coast of Alaska and compared these trends to factors potentially influencing migration phenology. Date of first arrival occurred an average of 0.12 d yr 1 or 6 d (range  3-10 d) earlier across all species and did not differ significantly among species between 1964 and 2013. Local climatic variables, particularly temperature, had a greater effect on a species first arrival date than did large-scale climatic predictors. First arrival date was 1.03 d earlier for every 1°C annual change in temperature, but there was nearly a 2-fold difference in the range of responses across species (0.69-1.33 d °C 1 ), implying that some species did better than others at timing their arrival with changing temperature. There was weak support for an influence of foraging strategy, migration distance, and flight path on timing of first arrival. Our findings, like others from temperate latitudes, indicate that avian migrants are responsive to changing environmental conditions, though some species appear to be more adaptive than others.

Under the Bald and Golden Eagle Protection Act, the United States Fish and Wildlife Service (Service) can authorize take of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos), such as nest removal, disturbance, and lethal take, if the take is compatible with the preservation of the golden eagle. The Service needs baseline information on the current abundance and trend of subpopulations of the golden eagle to properly manage take of the species. Annually during late summer of 2006-2012, we used distance sampling on approximately 17,500 km of aerial line transects to estimate golden eagle abundance in 4 Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs; North American Bird Conservation Initiative Monitoring Subcommitte 2007) that collectively cover about 80% of the species' range in the coterminous western United States. We estimated study area abundances of 24,509 (90% CI: 19,406-31,947) in 2006 and 21,715 (90% CI: 18,165-27,624) in 2012, including all breeding and non-breeding individuals. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in individual BCRs and the entire study area based on numbers of golden eagles counted along surveyed transects. We detected declines (90% credible intervals [CRIs] for trend coefficients <0.0) in numbers of golden eagles classified as juveniles in BCR 10 (Northern Rockies) and BCR 16 (Southern Rockies and Colorado Plateau) during 2006-2012. However, our results indicate the total abundance of golden eagles has not declined 2006-2012 in much of the western United States. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

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The iconic plains bison (Bison bison) have been reintroduced to many places in their former range, but there are few scientific data evaluating the success of these reintroductions or guiding the continued management of these populations. Relying on mark-recapture data, we used a multistate model to estimate bison survival and breeding transition probabilities while controlling for the recapture process. We tested hypotheses in these demographic parameters associated with age, sex, reproductive state, and environmental variables. We also estimated biological process variation in survival and breeding transition probabilities by factoring out sampling variation. The recapture rate of females and calves was high (0.78 6 0.15 [SE]) and much lower for males (0.41 6 0.23), especially older males (0.17 6 0.15). We found that overall bison survival was high (.0.8) and that males (0.80 6 0.13) survived at lower rates than females (0.94 6 0.04), but as females aged survival declined (0.89 6 0.05 for F L 15 yr old). Lactating and non-lactating females survived at similar rates. We found that females can conceive early (approx. 1.5 yr of age) and had a high probability (approx. 0.8) of breeding in consecutive years, until age 13.5 years, when females that were non-lactating tended to stay in that state. Our results suggest senescence in reproduction and survival for females. We found little support for the effect of climatic covariates on demographic rates, perhaps because the park's current population management goals were predicated from drought-year conditions. This reintroduction has been successful, but continued culling actions will need to be employed and an adaptive management approach is warranted. Our demographic approach can be applied to other heavily managed large-ungulate systems with few or no natural predators.

The iconic plains bison (Bison bison) have been reintroduced to many places in their former range, but there are few scientific data evaluating the success of these reintroductions or guiding the continued management of these populations. Relying on mark‐recapture data, we used a multistate model to estimate bison survival and breeding transition probabilities while controlling for the recapture process. We tested hypotheses in these demographic parameters associated with age, sex, reproductive state, and environmental variables. We also estimated biological process variation in survival and breeding transition probabilities by factoring out sampling variation. The recapture rate of females and calves was high (0.78 ± 0.15 [SE]) and much lower for males (0.41 ± 0.23), especially older males (0.17 ± 0.15). We found that overall bison survival was high (>0.8) and that males (0.80 ± 0.13) survived at lower rates than females (0.94 ± 0.04), but as females aged survival declined (0.89 ± 0.05 for F ≥15 yr old). Lactating and non‐lactating females survived at similar rates. We found that females can conceive early (approx. 1.5 yr of age) and had a high probability (approx. 0.8) of breeding in consecutive years, until age 13.5 years, when females that were non‐lactating tended to stay in that state. Our results suggest senescence in reproduction and survival for females. We found little support for the effect of climatic covariates on demographic rates, perhaps because the park's current population management goals were predicated from drought‐year conditions. This reintroduction has been successful, but continued culling actions will need to be employed and an adaptive management approach is warranted. Our demographic approach can be applied to other heavily managed large‐ungulate systems with few or no natural predators.