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Objectives. To estimate the direct and indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on overall, race/ethnicity‒specific, and age-specific mortality in 2020 in the United States. Methods. Using surveillance data, we modeled expected mortality, compared it to observed mortality, and estimated the share of “excess” mortality that was indirectly attributable to the pandemic versus directly attributed to COVID-19. We present absolute risks and proportions of total pandemic-related mortality, stratified by race/ethnicity and age. Results. We observed 16.6 excess deaths per 10 000 US population in 2020; 84% were directly attributed to COVID-19. The indirect effects of the pandemic accounted for 16% of excess mortality, with proportions as low as 0% among adults aged 85 years and older and more than 60% among those aged 15 to 44 years. Indirect causes accounted for a higher proportion of excess mortality among racially minoritized groups (e.g., 32% among Black Americans and 23% among Native Americans) compared with White Americans (11%). Conclusions. The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality and health disparities are underestimated when only deaths directly attributed to COVID-19 are considered. An equitable public health response to the pandemic should also consider its indirect effects on mortality. (Am J Public Health. 2022;112(1):154–164. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306541 )

Introduction Experiences of violence during youth contravene young people’s rights and increase the risk of depression and poor human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) care outcomes among youth living with HIV (YLWH). Intervention targets for mitigating the negative psychosocial effects of violence are needed, particularly in areas like rural South Africa where violence remains pervasive and mental healthcare is limited. This study aims to quantify the associations between physical and sexual violence and depressive symptoms in YLWH in rural South Africa and explore the modification of these associations by key measures of psychosocial well‐being. Methods We conducted a cross‐sectional survey among 362 YLWH ages 12 to 24 in rural South Africa to ascertain participants’ history of physical and sexual violence, current depressive symptoms (Center for Epidemiological Studies‐Depression Scale) and levels of social support (Medical Outcomes Social Support Scale), resilience (Conner‐Davidson Resilience Scale) and self‐esteem (Rosenberg Self‐Esteem Scale). Log‐binomial regression was used to estimate the association between history of physical or sexual violence and clinically meaningful depressive symptoms (scores 16). Effect measure modification by high versus low resilience, social support and self‐esteem was assessed using likelihood ratio tests (α = 0.20). Results A total of 334 individuals with a median age of 21 (interquartile range: 16 to 23) were included in this analysis. Most participants were female (71.3%), single (81.4%) and attending school (53.0%). Ninety‐four participants (28.1%) reported a history of physical or sexual violence and 92 individuals (27.5%) had clinically meaningful depressive symptoms. Meaningful depressive symptoms were significantly higher among participants with a history of physical or sexual violence as compared to those with no history of violence (adjusted prevalence ratio: 2.01; 95% CI: 1.43, 2.83). However, this association was significantly modified by social support ( p = 0.04) and self‐esteem ( p = 0.02). Conclusions In this setting, the prevalence of meaningful depressive symptoms was significantly higher among YLWH with a history of physical or sexual violence as compared to those without a history of violence. However, higher levels of self‐esteem or social support appeared to mitigate this association. Programmes to improve self‐esteem and social support for youth have the potential to minimize depressive symptoms in YLWH who have experienced physical or sexual violence.

Background Equity in vaccination coverage is a cornerstone for a successful public health response to COVID-19. To deepen understanding of the extent to which vaccination coverage compares with initial strategies for equitable vaccination, we explore primary vaccine series and booster rollout over time and by race/ethnicity, social vulnerability, and geography. Methods and findings We analyzed data from the Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services on all COVID-19 vaccinations administered across 7 counties in the St. Louis region and 4 counties in the Kansas City region. We compared rates of receiving the primary COVID-19 vaccine series and boosters relative to time, race/ethnicity, zip-code-level Social Vulnerability Index (SVI), vaccine location type, and COVID-19 disease burden. We adapted a well-established tool for measuring inequity—the Lorenz curve—to quantify inequities in COVID-19 vaccination relative to these key metrics. Between 15 December 2020 and 15 February 2022, 1,763,036 individuals completed the primary series and 872,324 received a booster. During early phases of the primary series rollout, Black and Hispanic individuals from high SVI zip codes were vaccinated at less than half the rate of White individuals from low SVI zip codes, but rates increased over time until they were higher than rates in White individuals after June 2021; Asian individuals maintained high levels of vaccination throughout. Increasing vaccination rates in Black and Hispanic communities corresponded with periods when more vaccinations were offered at small community-based sites such as pharmacies rather than larger health systems and mass vaccination sites. Using Lorenz curves, zip codes in the quartile with the lowest rates of primary series completion accounted for 19.3%, 18.1%, 10.8%, and 8.8% of vaccinations while representing 25% of the total population, cases, deaths, or population-level SVI, respectively. When tracking Gini coefficients, these disparities were greatest earlier during rollout, but improvements were slow and modest and vaccine disparities remained across all metrics even after 1 year. Patterns of disparities for boosters were similar but often of much greater magnitude during rollout in fall 2021. Study limitations include inherent limitations in the vaccine registry dataset such as missing and misclassified race/ethnicity and zip code variables and potential changes in zip code population sizes since census enumeration. Conclusions Inequities in the initial COVID-19 vaccination and booster rollout in 2 large US metropolitan areas were apparent across racial/ethnic communities, across levels of social vulnerability, over time, and across types of vaccination administration sites. Disparities in receipt of the primary vaccine series attenuated over time during a period in which sites of vaccination administration diversified, but were recapitulated during booster rollout. These findings highlight how public health strategies from the outset must directly target these deeply embedded structural and systemic determinants of disparities and track equity metrics over time to avoid perpetuating inequities in healthcare access.

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