Background:Data for multiple common susceptibility alleles for breast cancer may be combined to identify women at different levels of breast cancer risk. Such stratification could guide preventive and screening strategies. However, empirical evidence for genetic risk stratification is lacking.Methods:We investigated the value of using 77 breast cancer-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for risk stratification, in a study of 33 673 breast cancer cases and 33 381 control women of European origin. We tested all possible pair-wise multiplicative interactions and constructed a 77-SNP polygenic risk score (PRS) for breast cancer overall and by estrogen receptor (ER) status. Absolute risks of breast cancer by PRS were derived from relative risk estimates and UK incidence and mortality rates.Results:There was no strong evidence for departure from a multiplicative model for any SNP pair. Women in the highest 1% of the PRS had a three-fold increased risk of developing breast cancer compared with women in the middle quintile (odds ratio [OR] = 3.36, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.95 to 3.83). The ORs for ER-positive and ER-negative disease were 3.73 (95% CI = 3.24 to 4.30) and 2.80 (95% CI = 2.26 to 3.46), respectively. Lifetime risk of breast cancer for women in the lowest and highest quintiles of the PRS were 5.2% and 16.6% for a woman without family history, and 8.6% and 24.4% for a woman with a first-degree family history of breast cancer.Conclusions:The PRS stratifies breast cancer risk in women both with and without a family history of breast cancer. The observed level of risk discrimination could inform targeted screening and prevention strategies. Further discrimination may be achievable through combining the PRS with lifestyle/environmental factors, although these were not considered in this report.

Adenocarcinoma of the esophagus, or GEJ, has a poor prognosis. Early lesions [i.e. high grade dysplasia (HGD) or T1-carcinoma] are potentially curable. Local endoscopic therapies are promising treatment options for superficial lesions; however, for deeper lesions, surgical resection is considered to be the treatment of choice. To contribute to therapeutic decision-making, we retrospectively analysed the outcome of transhiatal esophagectomy in 120 patients with pathologically proven HGD (n=13) or T1-adenocarcinoma (n=107) of the distal esophagus or gastro-esophageal junction (GEJ). Tumors were subdivided into six different depths of invasion ('T1-mucosal' m1-m3, 'T1-submucosal' sm1-sm3), and the frequency of lymphatic dissemination and time to locoregional and/or distant recurrence were analysed. Only one of the 79 T1m1-3/sm1 tumors (1%) showed lymph node metastases as compared with 18 out of 41 T1sm2-3 tumors (44%). There was a significant difference in recurrence-free period between T1m1-m3/sm1 versus T1sm2-sm3 tumor patients (P log rank <0.0001), with 5-year recurrence-free percentages of 97% and 57%, respectively. In multivariate analysis including age, gender, tumor differentiation grade, N-stage and depth of invasion, only N-stage was an independent prognostic factor for recurrence-free period (hazard rate=5.9, 95% CI 1.7-20.7). However, if N-stage was excluded from analysis, only depth of invasion (T1sm2-3 versus T1m1-m3/sm1) was an independent prognostic factor for recurrence-free period (hazard rate=7.5, 95% CI 2.0-27.7). These data indicate that T1m1-m3/sm1 adenocarcinomas of esophagus or GEJ show a very low risk of lymphatic dissemination and are therefore eligible for local endoscopic therapy. After transhiatal surgical resection, almost half of the patients with T1sm2-sm3 lesions develop recurrent disease within 5 years, and therefore need additional therapy to improve survival.

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A simple risk score combining clinical characteristics along with hospital volume to predict surgical mortality after esophagectomy from administrative data may form a basis for risk adjustment in quality of care assessment.