Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a fatal neurodegenerative disease with substantial heterogeneity in its clinical presentation. This makes diagnosis and effective treatment difficult, so better tools for estimating disease progression are needed. Here, we report results from the DREAM-Phil Bowen ALS Prediction Prize4Life challenge. In this crowdsourcing competition, competitors developed algorithms for the prediction of disease progression of 1,822 ALS patients from standardized, anonymized phase 2/3 clinical trials. The two best algorithms outperformed a method designed by the challenge organizers as well as predictions by ALS clinicians. We estimate that using both winning algorithms in future trial designs could reduce the required number of patients by at least 20%. The DREAM-Phil Bowen ALS Prediction Prize4Life challenge also identified several potential nonstandard predictors of disease progression including uric acid, creatinine and surprisingly, blood pressure, shedding light on ALS pathobiology. This analysis reveals the potential of a crowdsourcing competition that uses clinical trial data for accelerating ALS research and development

AIM The aim of the study was to determine survival probabilities and life expectancies for individuals with cerebral palsy based on data collected over a 28-year period in California.METHOD We identified all individuals with cerebral palsy, aged 4 years or older, who were clients of the California Department of Developmental Services between 1983 and 2010. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were constructed for 4-year-old children, and the estimated survival probabilities were adjusted to reflect trends in mortality by calendar year. For persons aged 15, 30, 45, and 60 years, separate Poisson regression models were used to estimate age-, sex-, and disability-specific mortality rates. These mortality rates were adjusted to reflect trends of improved survival, and life expectancies were obtained using life table methods. RESULTSThe sample comprised 16 440, 14 609, 11 735, 7023, and 2375 persons at ages 4, 15, 30, 45, and 60 years, respectively. In 1983, 50% of 4-year-old children who did not lift their heads in the prone position and were tube fed lived to age 10.9 years. By 2010, the median age at death had increased to 17.1 years. In ambulatory children the probability of survival to adulthood did not change by more than 1%. Life expectancies for adolescents and adults were lower for those with more severe limitations in motor function and feeding skills, and decreased with advancing age. Life expectancies for tube-fed adolescents and adults increased by 1 to 3 years, depending on age and pattern of disability, over the course of the study period.INTERPRETATION Over the past three decades in California there have been significant improvements in the survival of children with very severe disabilities. There have also been improvements to the life expectancy of tube-fed adults, though to a lesser extent than in children.For individuals with cerebral palsy (CP), the determination of survival prognosis and life expectancy is important for medical and financial planning, including the determination of expected total lifetime care costs. Survival probabilities or life expectancies for persons with CP have been reported in several populations, including California, the UK, Australia, Canada, Sweden, and Japan.1-14 The most useful studies for prognosis are those that provide figures specific to children or adults of a particular age and severity of disability. In such studies, survival probabilities have been shown to be very similar across countries. 2,13,14 The survival figures from the published studies are based on persons with CP who were followed over the last several decades. 2,13,14 Whether survival probabilities or life expectancy estimates computed from these historical cohorts pertain to children and adults today is not always clear. In our companion article we documented significant improvements in mortality for children and tube-fed adolescents and adults with CP in California over the last 30 years. Survival probabilities and, by extension, life expectancies based on historical data from California should be adj...

Objective Routine monitoring of plasma HIV RNA among HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) is unavailable in many resource-limited settings. Alternative monitoring approaches correlate poorly with virologic failure and can substantially delay switch to second-line therapy. We evaluated the impact of delayed switch on mortality among patients with virologic failure in Africa. Design A cohort. Methods We examined patients with confirmed virologic failure on first-line non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-based regimens from four cohorts with serial HIV RNA monitoring in Uganda and South Africa. Marginal structural models aimed to estimate the effect of delayed switch on mortality in a hypothetical trial in which switch time was randomly assigned. Inverse probability weights adjusted for measured confounders including time-updated CD4+ T-cell count and HIV RNA. Results Among 823 patients with confirmed virologic failure, the cumulative incidence of switch 180 days after failure was 30% [95% confidence interval (CI) 27–33]. The majority of patients (74%) had not failed immunologically as defined by WHO criteria by the time of virologic failure. Adjusted mortality was higher for individuals who remained on first-line therapy than for those who had switched [odds ratio (OR) 2.1, 95% CI 1.1 –4.2]. Among those without immunologic failure, the relative harm of failure to switch was similar (OR 2.4; 95% CI 0.99–5.8) to that of the entire cohort, although of borderline statistical significance. Conclusion Among HIV-infected patients with confirmed virologic failure on first-line ART, remaining on first-line therapy led to an increase in mortality relative to switching. Our results suggest that detection and response to confirmed virologic failure could decrease mortality.