The aim was to illuminate the difference in incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of gastric cancer (GC) between the United States of America (US) and China. The multiple management was analyzed with stratification to explore an effective survival improvement strategy. The Global Burden of Disease Study data was analyzed to assess GC morbidity, mortality and DALYs from 1990 to 2019 in the US and China. The age-period-cohort model was established to generate estimation of metrics. Verification was completed and stratified analysis of the multiple management was performed by accessing data of Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database in 1992 to 2019. Continuous downtrends in GC incidence, mortality and DALYs from 1990 to 2019 and persistent uptrends in 1-, 3-year survival from 1992 to 2019 were observed in the US population. In the Chinese population, the overall trends of incidence, mortality and DALYs decreased with a fluctuating manner. The lower overall survival rates were observed in elderly, unmarried patients, distant disease and poor grade, as well as patients lacking of medical treatment (P < .05). In stratified analyses, single local therapy decreased and the other modalities increased over time across different stages. Moreover, combined treatment and single systemic therapy decreased, but single local and conservative therapy increased with age. The study quantified the incidence, GC-specific mortality and DALYs in the US and China and estimated stage profiles, 1-and 3-year survival in the US. The heavy burden on later-onset GC (>70) and potential increase on early-onset GC (<40) needed to be addressed. Combined modalities and single chemotherapy were becoming more widely used over time, however, their uses decreased with age because of poor physical fitness. Our findings provide new insights into management tailoring appropriately to specific subgroups contributes to the increasing survival rate. Abbreviations: AAI = age-adjusted incidence, AAPCs = average annual percent changes, APCs = annual percentage changes, CI = confidence interval, DALYs = disability-adjusted life-years, GBD = the Global Burden of Disease Study, GC = gastric cancer, IBM = incidence-based mortality, OS = overall survival, RR = rate ratios, SEER = the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results, US = the United States of America.
Background:The aim of our study was to investigate the clinical characteristics and pathogenesis of tumor-induced acute pancreatitis (AP), and to develop a reliable prediction model of the clinical features to guide the diagnosis and treatment.Methods: Patients with AP between January 2013 and December 2021 were enrolled in the study and were subdivided into the tumor group and the non-tumor group. The tumor group was subdivided into three groups based on the primary sites. Characteristic parameters, laboratory and imaging results were compared between groups. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model, XGBoost and random forest model were used to select the predictors associated with tumor-induced AP. Logistic regression analysis was used to validate the performance of the selected predictors and a nomogram was established to provide individualized probability of a tumor origin for AP.Results: A total amount of 8970 patients were admitted for AP during the study period, and 8637 AP patients were enrolled in the study. Of these, 100 cases (1.16%) were tumor-induced AP. The tumor group was significantly older than the non-tumor group (t = 6.050, p = 0.000). Mild AP was observed in 90 cases, moderate AP in 9 cases and severe AP in one case. Tumors respectively originated from distal bile duct (14 cases), ampulla (13 cases) and pancreas (73 cases). The median time from initial AP to tumor diagnosis was 8.57 weeks and the median number of episode was 2 in the tumor group, which significantly surpassed the non-tumor group (p = 0.000). Age, white blood cell count, percentage of neutrophils, pancreatic or bile duct dilation and recurrent attacks were selected independent predictors for tumor origin. A nomogram model based on these factors was established. Conclusion:For patients with agnogenic AP, elderly man, recurrent attacks, pancreatic or bile duct dilatation and continuous no significant increase of inflammatory markers prompt to further screening of pancreatic biliary and ampulla.
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