Climate change is likely to increase the variability in environmental conditions that Australian farmers will have to contend with, potentially threatening farm viability. In this research we use general systems theory to describe how farmers use the three types of system regulators (aggregation, error control and anticipation) to manage variability in the environment. We present codling moth management as an example of system regulation in agriculture. We found that adaptation to climate change is likely to require that farmers modify the structure of their farm systems by changing their combination of system regulators. Decisions regarding changes in structure may favour certain types or system regulators over others. This has implications for policy development to support farm adaptation.

Accepting that increased climate variability will require that farmers make significant changes to their farm systems, we can see that maintaining flexibility is an important coping strategy. Using general systems theory, we offer a conceptual model for describing the tactical and strategic flexibility of farm systems to reveal the sensitivity of farm systems to variable critical inputs. The model is used to classify farm systems as rigid, robust, or elastic on the basis of two factors, the capacity of the farmer to reduce reliance on critical inputs by altering the following: (i) the use of critical inputs and (ii) farm output. The different production emphasis for the different types of systems has implications for how these farmers are able to respond to increased variability and on public policies that may support viable farm businesses in the face of increased variability.

Abstract:In a given operating environment, small family businesses typically have fewer resources to minimize vulnerability. Identifying this exposure is basic to strategic analysis and, potentially, public policy analysis. This can become even more important when structural change in the environment is expected while its exact character is not known. The implications of climate change for Australian family farms are an example. This paper reports a study designed to analyse the vulnerability of dairy farms in Victoria, Australia. The study draws on production control (applied general systems) theory, value chains and image theory to capture comprehensively the lock-in arising from salient past decisions and impact on the current business structure and strategy. This is the path dependence that defines the constraints and associated options available to small family businesses. The authors identify benefits associated with the use of dynamic analysis of vulnerability over static analysis. Generalizable implications regarding analysis of vulnerability in small family businesses are offered.