Bipolar disorder (BD) is characterized by recurrent mood episodes. It is increasingly suggested that disturbances in sleep–wake cycles and/or circadian rhythms could represent valuable predictors of recurrence, but few studies have addressed this question. Euthymic individuals with BD (n = 69) undertook 3 weeks of actigraphy recording and were then followed up for a median duration of 3.5 years. Principal component analyses were used to identify core dimensions of sleep quantity/variability and circadian rhythmicity. Associations between clinical variables and actigraphy dimensions and time to first recurrence were explored using survival analyses, and then using area under the curve (AUC) analyses (early vs. late recurrence). Most participants (64%) experienced a recurrence during follow-up (median survival time: 18 months). After adjusting for potential confounding factors, an actigraphy dimension comprising amplitude and variability/stability of circadian rhythms was a significant predictor of time to recurrence (p = 0.009). The AUC for correct classification of early vs. late recurrence subgroups was only 0.64 for clinical predictors, but combining these variables with objectively measured intra-day variability improved the AUC to 0.82 (p = 0.04). Actigraphy estimates of circadian rhythms, particularly variability/stability and amplitude, may represent valid predictive markers of future BD recurrences and could be putative targets for future psychosocial interventions.

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