Detection of persistent cervical carcinogenic human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA is used as a marker for cervical cancer risk in clinical trials. The authors performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of the association between persistent HPV DNA and high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN2-3), high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSIL), and invasive cervical cancer (together designated CIN2-3/HSIL+) to evaluate the robustness of HPV persistence for clinical use. MEDLINE and Current Contents were searched through January 30, 2006. Relative risks (RRs) were stratified by HPV comparison group. Of 2,035 abstracts, 41 studies were eligible for inclusion in the meta-analysis. Over 22,500 women were included in calculation of RRs for persistent HPV DNA detection and cervical neoplasia. RRs ranged from 1.3 (95% confidence interval: 1.1, 1.5) to 813.0 (95% confidence interval: 168.2, 3,229.2) for CIN2-3/HSIL+ versus 12 months), wider testing intervals, CIN2-3/HSIL+, and use of an HPV-negative reference group were consistently associated with higher RRs. Thus, HPV persistence was consistently and strongly associated with CIN2-3/HSIL+, despite wide variation in definitions and study methods. The magnitude of association varied by duration of persistence and testing interval. Precise definition and standardization of HPV testing, sampling procedure, and test interval are needed for reliable clinical testing. These findings validate HPV persistence as a clinical marker and endpoint.

This study investigated the relation between weekly levels of influenza activity and the risk of acute influenza-like illness episodes among 8,323 healthy pregnant and postpartum women enrolled in a Puget Sound region, Washington, health maintenance organization, Group Health Cooperative, between June 1991 and December 1997. The authors classified weeks between October and May for isolate activity level based on surveillance data for influenza, respiratory syncytial virus, parainfluenza, and adenovirus infection. Influenza-like illness episodes were identified from medical encounters assigned a diagnostic code consistent with a symptomatic influenza infection. The authors compared the occurrence of influenza-like illness episodes within each pregnancy stage for periods with varying levels of influenza isolate detection in the community. Repeated-measures logistic regression methods accounted for time-dependent factors. The adjusted strength of association between influenza exposure and influenza-like illness episodes increased as the pregnancy stage progressed (first trimester odds ratio = 1.12, 95% confidence interval: 0.79, 1.59; second trimester odds ratio = 1.30, 95% confidence interval: 0.97, 1.73; third trimester odds ratio = 1.84, 95% confidence interval: 1.31, 2.59; postpartum period odds ratio = 2.28, 95% confidence interval: 1.42, 3.68). Pregnancy stage modified the association between influenza activity and influenza-like illness episodes. Findings estimate that 20-43 pregnant/postpartum women would need to be vaccinated with an 80% effective vaccine to prevent one influenza-like illness episode.

BackgroundNoroviruses (NoVs) are the most common cause of acute gastroenteritis (AGE) causing both sporadic and outbreak-associated illness. Norovirus (NoV) infections occur across all ages but certain sub-groups are considered at increased risk due to heightened transmission and/or symptom severity. Older adults are potentially at high risk of NoV-associated illness due to frequent outbreaks in long-term care facilities (LTCFs) and severe health outcomes following infection. Elucidation of NoV risk among older adults will support prevention, treatment and control efforts.MethodsWe conducted a systematic literature review to summarize the published risk estimates of NoV-associated illness, hospitalization and death among individuals aged 65 years and older. A structured search using defined NoV and gastroenteritis (GE) terms was performed in the PubMed and EMBASE databases of human studies published between January 1, 2003 and May 16, 2013.ResultsWe identified 39 studies from high income (HI) and upper-middle income (UMI) countries. Thirty-six percent of publications provided risk estimates based on laboratory-confirmed or epidemiologically-linked population-based surveillance data using molecular diagnostic methods. Over the study period, estimated annual NoV rates and extrapolated number of cases among older adults in HI and UMI countries were: 29-120/10,000 or 1.2–4.8 million NoV-associated illnesses; 18–54/10,000 or 723,000–2.2 million NoV-associated outpatient visits; 1–19/10,000 or 40,00–763,000 NoV-associated inpatient visits; 0.04–0.32/10,000 or 2000–13,000 NoV-associated deaths. NoV was responsible for approximately 10–20 % of GE hospitalizations and 10–15 % of all-cause GE deaths among older adults. Older adults experienced a heightened risk of nosocomial infections. Those in LTCFs experience frequent NoV outbreaks and the range in attack rates was 3–45 %, case hospitalization rates 0.5–6 % and case fatality rates 0.3–1.6 %.ConclusionsOlder adults are at increased risk of severe NoV-associated health outcomes. NoV-associated hospitalization rates were higher, more severe, resulted in longer stays and incurred greater costs than for younger patients. NoV-associated mortality rates were approximately 200 % higher among individuals 65 years and older compared to <5 years. The burden of NoV among older adults is expected to rise along with societal aging and increased need for institutionalized care. NoV prevention in older adults, including potential vaccination, may significantly impact risk of severe illness.

Background: We analyzed data from a cohort of 553 women enrolled in the placebo arm of a randomized controlled trial of the human papillomavirus (HPV) 16/18 vaccine to study the timing of the occurrence of squamous intraepithelial lesions (SIL) or cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) following incident HPV infection and its relation to persistence of the infection. Methods: At entry, women were cytologically negative, HPV 16/18 seronegative, and high-risk HPV (HR-HPV) DNA negative. Cervicovaginal samples were initially collected at 3-month and cervical samples at 6-month intervals. We estimated the mean time to SIL/CIN, relative risks of SIL/CIN following incident HPV, and odds ratios between persistent HPV and SIL/CIN.

ObjectivesTo develop a prognostic model to identify and quantify risk factors for mortality among patients admitted to the hospital with COVID-19.DesignRetrospective cohort study. Patients were randomly assigned to either training (80%) or test (20%) sets. The training set was used to fit a multivariable logistic regression. Predictors were ranked using variable importance metrics. Models were assessed by C-indices, Brier scores and calibration plots in the test set.SettingOptum de-identified COVID-19 Electronic Health Record dataset including over 700 hospitals and 7000 clinics in the USA.Participants17 086 patients hospitalised with COVID-19 between 20 February 2020 and 5 June 2020.Main outcome measureAll-cause mortality while hospitalised.ResultsThe full model that included information on demographics, comorbidities, laboratory results, and vital signs had good discrimination (C-index=0.87) and was well calibrated, with some overpredictions for the most at-risk patients. Results were similar on the training and test sets, suggesting that there was little overfitting. Age was the most important risk factor. The performance of models that included all demographics and comorbidities (C-index=0.79) was only slightly better than a model that only included age (C-index=0.76). Across the study period, predicted mortality was 1.3% for patients aged 18 years old, 8.9% for 55 years old and 28.7% for 85 years old. Predicted mortality across all ages declined over the study period from 22.4% by March to 14.0% by May.ConclusionAge was the most important predictor of all-cause mortality, although vital signs and laboratory results added considerable prognostic information, with oxygen saturation, temperature, respiratory rate, lactate dehydrogenase and white cell count being among the most important predictors. Demographic and comorbidity factors did not improve model performance appreciably. The full model had good discrimination and was reasonably well calibrated, suggesting that it may be useful for assessment of prognosis.