The moving epidemic method (MEM) and the WHO method are widely used to determine intensity levels for seasonal influenza. The two approaches are conceptually similar, but differ in two aspects. Firstly, the MEM involves a log transformation of incidence data, while the WHO method operates on the original scale. Secondly, the MEM uses more than one observation from each past season to compute intensity thresholds, fixing the total number to include. The WHO method uses only the highest value from each season. To assess the impact of these choices on thresholds we perform simulation studies which are based on re-sampling of ILI data from France, Spain, Switzerland and the US. When no transformation is applied, a rather large proportion of season peaks are classified as high or very high intensity. This can be mitigated by a logarithmic transformation. When fixing the total number of included past observations, thresholds increase the more seasons are available. When only few are available, there is a high chance of classifying new season peaks as high or very high intensity. We therefore suggest using one observation per season and a log transformation, i.e. a hybrid of the default settings of the MEM and WHO methods.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
customersupport@researchsolutions.com
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.
Copyright © 2025 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.