Most thyroid nodules are benign. A diagnostic approach that uses ultrasound and, when indicated, fine-needle aspiration biopsy and molecular testing, facilitates a personalized, risk-based protocol that promotes high-quality care and minimizes cost and unnecessary testing.

Among patients with asymptomatic, sonographically or cytologically benign thyroid nodules, the majority of nodules exhibited no significant size increase during 5 years of follow-up and thyroid cancer was rare. These findings support consideration of revision of current guideline recommendations for follow-up of asymptomatic thyroid nodules.

Context The prevalence of thyroid nodules in the general population is increasingly high, and at least half of those biopsied prove to be benign. Sonographic risk-stratification systems are being proposed as “rule-out” tests that can identify nodules that do not require fine-needle aspiration (FNA) cytology. Objective To comparatively assess the performances of five internationally endorsed sonographic classification systems [those of the American Thyroid Association, the American Association of Clinical Endocrinologists, the American College of Radiology (ACR), the European Thyroid Association, and the Korean Society of Thyroid Radiology] in identifying nodules whose FNAs can be safely deferred and to estimate their negative predictive values (NPVs). Design Prospective study of thyroid nodules referred for FNA. Setting Single academic referral center. Patients Four hundred seventy-seven patients (358 females, 75.2%); mean (SD) age, 55.9 (13.9) years. Main Outcome Measures Number of biopsies classified as unnecessary, false-negative rate (FNR), sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, and diagnostic ORs for each system. Results Application of the systems’ FNA criteria would have reduced the number of biopsies performed by 17.1% to 53.4%. The ACR Thyroid Imaging Reporting and Data System (TIRADS) allowed the largest reduction (268 of 502) with the lowest FNR (NPV, 97.8%; 95% CI, 95.2% to 99.2%). Except for the Korean Society of Thyroid Radiology TIRADS, all other systems exhibited significant discriminatory performance but produced significantly smaller reductions in the number of procedures. Conclusions Internationally endorsed sonographic risk stratification systems vary widely in their ability to reduce the number of unnecessary thyroid nodule FNAs. The ACR TIRADS outperformed the others, classifying more than half the biopsies as unnecessary with a FNR of 2.2%.

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Ultrasonography is the best available tool for the initial work-up of thyroid nodules. Substantial interobserver variability has been documented in the recognition and reporting of some of the lesion characteristics. A number of classification systems have been developed to estimate the likelihood of malignancy: several of them have been endorsed by scientific societies, but their reproducibility is yet to be assessed. We evaluated the interobserver variability of the AACE/ACE/AME, ACR, ATA, EU-TIRADS and K-TIRADS classification systems and the interobserver concordance in the indication to FNA biopsy. Two raters independently evaluated 1055 ultrasound images of thyroid nodules identified in 265 patients at multiple time points, in two separate sets (501 and 554 images). After the first set of nodules, a joint reading was performed to reach a consensus in the feature definitions. The interobserver agreement (Krippendorff alpha) in the first set of nodules was 0.47, 0.49, 0.49, 0.61 and 0.53, for AACE/ACE/AME, ACR, ATA, EU-TIRADS and K-TIRADS systems, respectively. The agreement for the indication to biopsy was substantial to near-perfect, being 0.73, 0.61, 0.75, 0.68 and 0.82, respectively (Cohen’s kappa). For all systems, agreement on the nodules of the second set increased. Despite the wide variability in the description of single ultrasonographic features, the classification systems may improve the interobserver agreement that further ameliorates after a specific training. When selecting nodules to be submitted to FNA biopsy, that is main purpose of these classifications, the interobserver agreement is substantial to almost perfect.