We investigated different take-up rates of home loans in cases in which banks offered different interest rates. If a bank can increase its take-up rates, it could possibly improve its market share. In this article, we explore empirical home loan price elasticity, the effect of loan-to-value on the responsiveness of home loan customers and whether it is possible to predict home loan take-up rates. We employed different regression models to predict take-up rates, and tree-based ensemble models (bagging and boosting) were found to outperform logistic regression models on a South African home loan data set. The outcome of the study is that the higher the interest rate offered, the lower the take-up rate (as was expected). In addition, the higher the loan-to-value offered, the higher the take-up rate (but to a much lesser extent than the interest rate). Models were constructed to estimate take-up rates, with various modelling techniques achieving validation Gini values of up to 46.7%. Banks could use these models to positively influence their market share and profitability.
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