Abstract:Floods are natural disasters with significant socio-economic consequences. Urban areas with uncontrolled urban development, rapid population growth, an unregulated municipal system and an unplanned change of land use belong to the highly sensitive areas where floods cause devastating economic and social losses. The aim of this paper is to present a reliable GIS multi-criteria methodology for hazard zones' mapping of flood-prone areas in urban areas. The proposed methodology is based on the combined application of geographical information systems (GIS) and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). The methodology considers six factors that are relevant to the hazard of flooding in urban areas: the height, slope, distance to the sewage network, the distance from the water surface, the water table and land use. The expert evaluation takes into account the nature and severity of observed criteria, and it is tested using three scenarios: the modalities of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The first of them uses a new approach to the exploitation of uncertainty in the application of the AHP technique, the interval rough numbers (IR'AHP). The second one uses the fuzzy technique for the exploitation of uncertainty with the AHP method (F'AHP), and the third scenario contemplates the use of the traditional (crisp) AHP method. The proposed methodology is demonstrated in Palilula Municipality, Belgrade, Serbia. In the last few decades, Palilula Municipality has been repeatedly devastated by extreme flood events. These floods severely affected the transportation networks and other infrastructure. Historical flood inundation data have been used in the validation process. The final urban flood hazard map proves a satisfactory agreement between the flood hazard zones and the spatial distribution of historical floods that happened in the last 58 years. The results indicate that the scenario in which the IR'AHP methodology is used provides the highest level of compatibility with historical data on floods. The produced map showed that the areas of very high flood hazard are located on the left Danube River bank. These areas are characterized by lowland morphology, gentle slope, sewage network, expansion of impermeable locations and intense urbanization. The proposed GIS-IR'AHP methodology and the results of this study provide a good basis for developing a system of flood hazard management in urban areas and can be successfully used for spatial city development policy.

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The main objectives of this paper are to demonstrate the results of an ensemble learning method based on prediction results of support vector machine and random forest methods using Bayesian average. In this study, we generated susceptibility maps of forest fire using supervised machine learning method (support vector machine—SVM) and its comparison with a versatile machine learning algorithm (random forest—RF) and their ensembles. In order to achieve this, first of all, a forest fire inventory map was constructed using Serbian historical forest fire database, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro radiometer (MODIS), Landsat 8 OLI and Worldview-2 satellite images, field surveys, and interpretation of aerial photo images. A total of 126 forest fire locations were identified and randomly divided by a random selection algorithm into two groups, including training (70%) and validation data sets (30%). Forest fire susceptibility maps were prepared using SVM, RF, and their ensemble models using the training dataset and 14 selected different conditioning factors. Finally, to explore the performance of the mentioned models we used the values for area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristics (ROC). The results depicted that the ensemble model had an AUC = 0.848, followed by the SVM model (AUC = 0.844), and RF model (AUC = 0.834). According to achieved AUC results, it can be deduced that SVM, RF, and their ensemble method had satisfactory performance. The study was applied in the Tara National Park (West Serbia), a region of about 191.7 sq. km distinguished by a very high forest density and a large number of forest fires.

This paper suggests spatial multi-criteria model in order to assist decision makers in the selection of sites which are suitable for ammunition depots (AD). They represent military facilities which have more criteria that need to be matched than civil structures. The proposed model is based on combined use of Geographic information systems (GIS) and multi-criteria techniques. The model application is presented in the case study of Carpathian region, the Eastern part of Serbia. The model deals with nine restrictions and six evaluation criteria. Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory-Analytic Network Process (DEMATEL-ANP) multi-criteria techniques are used to determine weight coefficients of evaluation criteria. Along with the above mentioned methods, this paper introduces a new technique for the multi-criteria decision making-MAIRCA (MultiAttributive Ideal-Real Comparative Analysis) method. The MAIRCA method is used for the ranking and selection of suitable locations. The results have shown that 45 km 2 of the Carpathian region is very suitable for ammunition depot construction. The MAIRCA method chose location L1 as the most appropriate. Sensitivity analysis shows that the model is capable of identifying a suitable ammunition depot location. This approach can be helpful in determining suitable ammunition depot locations in other regions with similar geographic conditions and can also be successfully used for the suitability assessment of existing ammunition depots.

This paper presents spatial mathematical model in order to identify sites for the wind farms installment which can have significant support for the planners in the area of strategy and management of wind power use. The suggested model is based on combined use of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) with multi-criteria techniques of Best-Worst method (BWM) and MultiAttributive Ideal-Real Comparative Analysis (MAIRCA). Rough numbers and fuzzy logic are used to exploit uncertainty during data analysis in spatial mathematical model. The model is applied on the case study. Rough BWM model is used to determine weight coefficients of the criteria and rough MAIRCA method is used to rank separated sustainable locations. The implementation of MAIRCA method has shown that the location L3 is the most suitable for the wind farm in the area covered in the case study. Therefore, the suggested spatial mathematical model can be successfully used to identify the potential suitable sites for the wind farms in other areas with similar geographic conditions.