This paper investigates quantitatively the benefits from participation in the Economic and Monetary Union for individual Euro area countries. Using the synthetic control method, we estimate how real GDP per capita would have developed for the EMU member states, if those countries had not joined the EMU. The estimates show that most countries have profited from having the euro, though the crisis leads to negative effects of EMU membership. The PIGS countries, in particular, would have been better off if they had not been an EMU member during the crisis, however, Greece, Portugal and Spain experienced the largest benefits of EMU participation in the pre-crisis period.JEL classification: C23, E65, F33, F36, F43, F45

In this paper, we incorporate a transfer mechanism into a DSGE model with a rich fiscal sector to assess the effectiveness of fiscal transfers for a monetary union, in particular for the Economic and Monetary Union. Using a heterogeneous setup, the model is estimated for the North and the South of Europe using Bayesian methods. The results show that the transfer mechanism is effective in stabilizing the economy of the southern block of countries during the financial crisis, although the total welfare effect for the EMU is negative, though small. Ex ante, a transfer mechanism would be beneficial for both the North and the South in terms of welfare and stabilization purposes. JEL classification: E62, E63, F42, F45