Production throughput measures the performance and behaviour of a production system. Production throughput modelling is complex because of uncertainties in the production line. This study examined the potential application of the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to modelling the throughput of production under five significant production uncertainties: scrap, setup time, break time, demand, and lead time of manufacturing. The effects of these uncertainties on the production of floor tiles were studied by performing 104 observations on the production uncertainties over 104 weeks, based on a weekly production plan in a tile manufacturing industry. The results of the ANFIS model were compared with the multiple linear regression (MLR) model. The results showed that the ANFIS model was capable of forecasting production throughput under uncertainty with higher accuracy than was the MLR model, indicated by an R-squared of 98 per cent. OPSOMMINGProduksie deurset meet die vertoning en gedrag van 'n produksiesisteem. Produksie deurset modellering is ingewikkeld as gevolg van die onsekerhede in die produksielyn. Hierdie studie ondersoek die toepassing van die aanpasbare neuro-wasige afleidingsisteem om die deurset van produksie onderhewe aan vyf noemenswaardige produksie onsekerhede, naamlik skroot, opstel tyd, breek tyd, aanvraag en die vervaardiging leityd. Die effek van hierdie onsekerhede op die vervaardiging van vloerteëls is ondersoek deur 104 weeklikse observasies op die produksie onsekerhede oor 'n tydperk van 104 weke te neem. Die resultate van die model is vergelyk met 'n meervoudige lineêre regressie model. Die resultate toon dat die aanpasbare neuro-wasige afleidingsisteem in staat was om produksie deurset onderhewe aan onsekerheid te voorspel met 'n hoër akkuraatheid as die meervoudige lineêre regressie model. Dit word aangedui met 'n bepaalheidskoëffisient van 98 persent.

If you would like to write for this, or any other Emerald publication, then please use our Emerald for Authors service information about how to choose which publication to write for and submission guidelines are available for all. Please visit www.emeraldinsight.com/authors for more information. About Emerald www.emeraldinsight.comEmerald is a global publisher linking research and practice to the benefit of society. The company manages a portfolio of more than 290 journals and over 2,350 books and book series volumes, as well as providing an extensive range of online products and additional customer resources and services.Emerald is both COUNTER 4 and TRANSFER compliant. The organization is a partner of the Committee on Publication Ethics (COPE) and also works with Portico and the LOCKSS initiative for digital archive preservation. AbstractPurpose -In electronics assembly, the losses of electronic components throughout the surface-mounting process (including kitting and setup) are hard to trace. This affects accurate material planning and manufacturing costing. This paper aims to investigate this issue and to generate a suitable mixture of strategies for the relevant causes. Design/methodology/approach -The project is executed by an undergraduate manufacturing engineering student and several company engineers over a period of ten weeks. Define, measure, analyze, improve, and control (DMAIC) approach delineates the project stages. The solutions devised must be in agreement with lean philosophies and practices currently upheld in the company. Findings -Component losses stem from multiple sources and are complicated by inherent information inaccuracies. A right mixture of strategies is envisaged on analysis on these sources. An average 18 percent of decrement in component losses in monetary value is achieved in the initial 16 weeks of the improvement phase.Research limitations/implications -The DMAIC approach induces a focused, systematic and thorough study on the selected area. For the limitations, this study is based on a single industrial case. The evidence may be anecdotal and idiosyncratic to the electronics assembly industry. The final solutions which emerged need to factor in the organization current maturities in Lean and Six Sigma concepts. Practical implications -Component loss is a common problem faced by electronics assembly industries. In this paper, the nature of the problem and the related investigation are extensively illustrated in the context of the case study. As many electronics assembly industries have embarked on Lean or Lean Six Sigma journeys, the savings and data accuracy improvement achieved in this case study provide valuable benchmarks. Originality/value -The issues related to electronic component losses have not been reported in established literature to date. This is also the first reported success case study of applying DMAIC to address these issues in a lean company.

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Throughput of each production stage cannot meet the demand in the real production system because of the disruptions and interruptions of the production line for example break time and scrap. On the other hand, demand changes over time due to volume variation and product redesign as the customers’ needs are changing. This situation leads to planning and controlling under uncertain condition. This paper proposes a hybrid model of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and multiple linear regression (MLR) for estimating and modeling the random variables of production line in order to forecast the throughput in presence of production variations and demand fluctuation. The random variables under consideration of this study are demand, break-time, scrap, and lead-time. The random variables are formulated in the MLR model, where the mean absolute percentage of error (MAPE) was 2.53%. Further, nine ARIMA models with different parameters in MLR model are fitted to the data and compared by their MAPE. The best model with the lowest MAPE was when the ARIMA parameters set for p=1, d=0, and q=3. Finally the proposed model using ARIMA-MLR is formulated by MAPE of 1.55%.

Analysis by modelling production throughput is an efficient way to provide information for production decision-making. Observation and investigation based on a real-life tile production line revealed that the five main uncertain variables are demand rate, breakdown time, scrap rate, setup time, and lead time. The volatile nature of these random variables was observed over a specific period of 104 weeks. The processes were sequential and multi-stage. These five uncertain variables of production were modelled to reflect the performance of overall production by applying Bayesian inference using Gibbs sampling. The application of Bayesian inference for handling production uncertainties showed a robust model with 2.5 per cent mean absolute percentage error. It is recommended to consider the five main uncertain variables that are introduced in this study for production decision-making. The study proposes the use of Bayesian inference for superior accuracy in production decision-making. OPSOMMINGAnalise deur middel van die modellering van produksie deurset is 'n effektiewe manier om inligting vir produksiebesluitneming te verskaf. Die waarneem en ondersoek van 'n teëlproduksielyn het getoon dat die vyf hoof onsekerheidsveranderlikes die vraagtempo, breektyd, skraptempo, opsteltyd en leityd is. Die vlugtige aard van hierdie toevalsveranderlikes is waargeneem oor 'n tydperk van 104 weke. Die prosesse was opeenvolgend en multi-stadium. Die vyf onsekerheidsveranderlikes van produksie is gemodelleer om die algehele vertoning van die produksie te weerspieël deur gebruik te maak van Bayesiese afleiding met Gibbs monsterneming. Die toepassing van Bayesiese afleiding vir die hanteer van produksie onsekerhede het 'n robuuste model, met 'n tweeen-'n-half persent gemiddelde absolute persentasie fout, tot gevolg gehad. Dit word aanbeveel dat die vyf belangrikste onsekerheidsveranderlikes, wat in hierdie studie bekendgestel is, oorweeg moet word vir produksiebesluitneming. Die studie stel die gebruik van die Bayesiese afleiding tegniek voor om sodoende beter akkuraatheid in produksiebesluitneming te verkry.