BACKGROUND The objective of this study was to identify trends and predictors of the time to treatment initiation (TTI) for patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). METHODS The National Cancer Database (NCDB) was reviewed for the following head and neck cancer sites: oral tongue, oropharynx, larynx, and hypopharynx. TTI was defined as the number of days from diagnosis to the initiation of definitive treatment and was measured according to covariates. Significant differences in the median TTI across each covariate were measured using the Kruskal‐Wallis test, and the Spearman test was used to measure trends within covariates. For multivariate analysis, a zero‐inflated, negative, binomial regression model was used to estimate the expected TTI, which was expressed in the predicted number of days; and the Vuong test was used to identify the predictors of TTI. RESULTS In total, 274,630 patients were included. Between 1998 and 2011, the median TTI for all patients was 26 days, and it increased from 19 days to 30 days (P < .0001). Treatment with chemoradiation (CRT) (P < .0001), treatment at academic facilities (P < .0001), and stage IV disease (P < .0001) were associated with increased TTI. TTI significantly increased for each disease stage (P < .0001), treatment modality (P < .0001), and facility type (P < .0001) over time. In addition, patients became more likely to transition care between facilities after diagnosis for treatment initiation (P < .0001) over time. On multivariate analysis, treatment at academic facilities (33 days), transitioning care (37 days), and receipt of CRT (39 days) predicted for a longer TTI. CONCLUSIONS TTI is rising for patients with HNSCC. Those who have advanced‐stage disease, receive treatment with CRT, are treated at academic facilities, and who have a transition in care realized the greatest increases in TTI. Cancer 2015;121:1204–1213. © 2014 American Cancer Society.

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(1) Background and purpose: clinical trials have unsuccessfully tried to de-escalate treatment in locally advanced human papillomavirus positive (HPV+) oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) with the goal of reducing treatment toxicity. The aim of this study was to explore the role of radiomics for risk stratification in this patient population to guide treatment. (2) Methods: the study population consisted of 225 patients with locally advanced HPV+ OPSCC treated with curative-intent radiation or chemoradiation therapy. Appearance of distant metastasis was used as the endpoint event. Radiomics data were extracted from the gross tumor volumes (GTVs) identified on the planning CT, with gray level being discretized using three different bin widths (8, 16, and 32). The data extracted for the groups with and without distant metastasis were subsequently balanced using three different algorithms including synthetic minority over-sampling technique (SMOTE), adaptive synthetic sampling (ADASYN), and borderline SMOTE. From these different combinations, a total of nine radiomics datasets were derived. Top features that minimized redundancy while maximizing relevance to the endpoint were selected individually and collectively for the nine radiomics datasets to build support vector machine (SVM) based predictive classifiers. Performance of the developed classifiers was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. (3) Results: of the 225 locally advanced HPV+ OPSCC patients being studied, 9.3% had developed distant metastases at last follow-up. SVM classifiers built for the nine radiomics dataset using either their own respective top features or the top consensus ones were all able to differentiate the two cohorts at a level of excellence or beyond, with ROC area under curve (AUC) ranging from 0.84 to 0.95 (median = 0.90). ROC comparisons further revealed that the majority of the built classifiers did not distinguish the two cohorts significantly better than each other. (4) Conclusions: radiomics demonstrated discriminative ability in distinguishing patients with locally advanced HPV+ OPSCC who went on to develop distant metastasis after completion of definitive chemoradiation or radiation alone and may serve to risk stratify this patient population with the purpose of guiding the appropriate therapy.