The bird fauna of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest is exceptionally diverse and threatened, with high levels of endemism. Available lists of the endemic birds of the Atlantic Forest were generated before recent taxonomic revisions lumped or split species and before the recent increase in species occurrence records. Our objective, therefore, was to compile a new list of the endemic birds of the Atlantic Forest, characterize these species in terms of conservation status and natural history traits, and map remaining vegetation and protected areas. We combined GIS analysis with a literature search to compile a list of endemic species and, based on the phylogeny and distribution of these species, characterized areas in terms of species richness, phylogenetic diversity, and endemism. We identified 223 species of birds endemic to the Atlantic Forest, including 12 species not included in previous lists. In addition, 14 species included in previous lists were not considered endemic, either because they occur outside the Atlantic Forest biome or because they are not considered valid species. The typical Atlantic Forest endemic bird is a small forest-dependent invertivore. Of the species on our list, 31% are considered threatened or extinct. Only~34% of the spatial analysis units had > 10% forest cover, and protected area coverage was consistently low (< 1%). In addition, we found spatial incongruity among the different measures of biodiversity (species richness, relative phylogenetic diversity, restricted-range species, and irreplaceability). Each of these measures provides information concerning different aspects of biological diversity. However, regardless of which aspect(s) of biodiversity might be considered most important, preservation of the remaining areas of remnant vegetation and further expansion of protected areas are essential if we are to conserve the many endemic species of birds in the Atlantic Forest. 6 Corresponding author. considerados m as importantes, la preservaci on de las areas de vegetaci on remanentes y una mayor expansi on de las areas protegidas son esenciales si nuestra intenci on es conservar las muchas especies de aves end emicas del Bosque Atl antico.

Different models are available to estimate species’ niche and distribution. Mechanistic and correlative models have different underlying conceptual bases, thus generating different estimates of a species’ niche and geographic extent. Hybrid models, which combining correlative and mechanistic approaches, are considered a promising strategy; however, no synthesis in the literature assessed their applicability for terrestrial vertebrates to allow best‐choice model considering their strengths and trade‐offs. Here, we provide a systematic review of studies that compared or integrated correlative and mechanistic models to estimate species’ niche for terrestrial vertebrates under climate change. Our goal was to understand their conceptual, methodological, and performance differences, and the applicability of each approach. The studies we reviewed directly compared mechanistic and correlative predictions in terms of accuracy or estimated suitable area, however, without any quantitative analysis to support comparisons. Contrastingly, many studies suggest that instead of comparing approaches, mechanistic and correlative methods should be integrated (hybrid models). However, we stress that the best approach is highly context‐dependent. Indeed, the quality and effectiveness of the prediction depends on the study's objective, methodological design, and which type of species’ niche and geographic distribution estimated are more appropriate to answer the study's issue.

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Global change imposes multiple challenges on species and, thus, a reliable prediction of current and future vulnerability of species must consider multiple stressors and intrinsic traits of species. Climate, physiology, and forest cover, for example, are required to evaluate threat to thermolabile forest-dependent species, such as sloths (Bradypus spp.; Mammalia: Xenarthra). Here, we estimated future changes in the distribution of three sloth species using a metabolic-hybrid model focused on climate (climatic only, i.e., CO approach) and adding forest cover constraints to distribution of species (climate plus land cover, i.e., CL approach). We used an innovative method to generate estimates of physiological parameters for endotherms, validated with field data. The CF approach predicted a future net expansion of distribution of B. torquatus and B. variegatus, and a future net contraction of distribution of B. tridactylus. The inclusion of forest cover constraints, however, reversed the predictions for B. torquatus, with a predicted net distribution contraction. It also reduced expansion of B. variegatus, although still showing a large net expansion. Thus, B. variegatus is not predicted to be threatened in the future; B. tridactylus emerges as the species most vulnerable to climate change, but with no considerable forest losses, while B. torquatus shows the opposite pattern. Our study highlights the importance of incorporating multiple stressors in predictive models in general. To increase resilience of species to climate change, it is key to control deforestation in the Amazon for B. tridactylus, and to promote reforestation in the Atlantic Forest for B. torquatus.