Glaciers distinct from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are shrinking rapidly, altering regional hydrology 1 , raising global sea-level 2 and elevating natural hazards 3 . Yet, due to the scarcity of constrained mass loss observations, glacier evolution during the satellite era is only known as a geographic and temporal patchwork 4,5 . Here we reveal the accelerated, albeit contrasted, patterns of glacier mass loss during the early twenty-first century. By leveraging largely untapped satellite archives, we chart surface elevation changes at a high spatiotemporal resolution over all of Earth's glaciers. We extensively validate our estimates against independent, high-precision measurements and present the first globally complete and consistent estimate of glacier mass change. We show that, during 2000-2019, glaciers lost 267 ± 16 Gt yr -1 , equivalent to 21 ± 3% of observed sea-level rise 6 . We identify a mass loss acceleration of 48 ± 16 Gt yr -1 per decade, explaining 6-19% of the observed acceleration of sea-level rise. Particularly, thinning rates of glaciers outside ice sheet peripheries doubled over the last two decades. Glaciers presently lose more mass, and at similar or larger accelerated rates, than the Greenland or Antarctic ice sheets taken separately [7][8][9] . Uncovering the patterns of mass change in many regions, we find contrasted glacier fluctuations that agree with decadal variability in precipitation and temperature. Those include a newly-identified North Atlantic anomaly of decelerated mass loss, a strongly accelerated loss from Northwestern American glaciers and the apparent end of the Karakoram anomaly of mass gain 10 . We anticipate our highly-resolved estimates to foster the understanding of drivers that govern the distribution of glacier change, and to extend our capabilities of predicting these changes at all scales. Predictions robustly benchmarked against observations are critically needed to design adaptive policies for the management of local water resources and cryospheric risks as well as for regional-to-global sea-level rise.About 200 million people live on land predicted to fall below the high-tide lines of rising sea levels by the end of the century 11 , while more than one billion could face water shortage and food insecurity within the next three decades 4 . Glaciers distinct from the ice sheets play a prominent role in these repercussions as the largest estimated contributor to twenty-first century sea-level rise after thermal expansion 2 , and as one of the most climate-sensitive constituents of the world's natural water towers 12,13 . Current glacier retreat temporarily mitigates water stress on populations reliant on ice reserves by increasing river runoff 1 , but this short-lived effect will eventually decline 14 . Understanding present-day and future glacier mass change is thus crucial to avoid water scarcity-induced socio-political instability 15 , to predict the alteration of coastal areas due to sea-level rise 4 , and to assess the impacts on ecosystems 16 as w...
Glacier mass balance has been estimated on individual glacier and regional scales using repeat digital elevation models (DEMs). DEMs often have gaps in coverage ("voids"), the properties of which depend on the nature of the sensor used and the surface being measured. The way that these voids are accounted for has a direct impact on the estimate of geodetic glacier mass balance, though a systematic comparison of different proposed methods has been heretofore lacking. In this study, we determine the impact and sensitivity of void interpolation methods on estimates of volume change. Using two spatially complete, high-resolution DEMs over southeast Alaska, USA, we artificially generate voids in one of the DEMs using correlation values derived from photogrammetric processing of Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) scenes. We then compare 11 different void interpolation methods on a glacier-by-glacier and regional basis. We find that a few methods introduce biases of up to 20 % in the regional results, while other methods give results very close ( < 1 % difference) to the true, non-voided volume change estimates. By comparing results from a few of the best-performing methods, an estimate of the uncertainty introduced by interpolating voids can be obtained. Finally, by increasing the number of voids, we show that with these best-performing methods, reliable estimates of glacier-wide volume change can be obtained, even with sparse DEM coverage.Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union.
Abstract. The detachment of large parts of low-angle mountain glaciers resulting in massive ice–rock avalanches have so far been believed to be a unique type of event, made known to the global scientific community first for the 2002 Kolka Glacier detachment, Caucasus Mountains, and then for the 2016 collapses of two glaciers in the Aru range, Tibet. Since 2016, several so-far unrecognized low-angle glacier detachments have been recognized and described, and new ones have occurred. In the current contribution, we compile, compare, and discuss 20 actual or suspected large-volume detachments of low-angle mountain glaciers at 10 different sites in the Caucasus, the Pamirs, Tibet, Altai, the North American Cordillera, and the Southern Andes. Many of the detachments reached volumes in the order of 10–100 million m3. The similarities and differences between the presented cases indicate that glacier detachments often involve a coincidental combination of factors related to the lowering of basal friction, high or increasing driving stresses, concentration of shear stress, or low resistance to exceed stability thresholds. Particularly soft glacier beds seem to be a common condition among the observed events as they offer smooth contact areas between the glacier and the underlying substrate and are prone to till-strength weakening and eventually basal failure under high pore-water pressure. Partially or fully thawed glacier bed conditions and the presence of liquid water could thus play an important role in the detachments. Surface slopes of the detached glaciers range between around 10∘ and 20∘. This may be low enough to enable the development of thick and thus large-volume glaciers while also being steep enough to allow critical driving stresses to build up. We construct a simple slab model to estimate ranges of glacier slope and width above which a glacier may be able to detach when extensively losing basal resistance. From this model we estimate that all the detachments described in this study occurred due to a basal shear stress reduction of more than 50 %. Most of the ice–rock avalanches resulting from the detachments in this study have a particularly low angle of reach, down to around 5∘, likely due to their high ice content and connected liquefaction potential, the availability of soft basal slurries, and large amounts of basal water, as well as the smooth topographic setting typical for glacial valleys. Low-angle glacier detachments combine elements and likely also physical processes of glacier surges and ice break-offs from steep glaciers. The surge-like temporal evolution ahead of several detachments and their geographic proximity to other surge-type glaciers indicate the glacier detachments investigated can be interpreted as endmembers of the continuum of surge-like glacier instabilities. Though rare, glacier detachments appear to be more frequent than commonly thought and disclose, despite local differences in conditions and precursory evolutions, the fundamental and critical potential of low-angle soft glacier beds to fail catastrophically.
This study assesses changes in glacier area, velocity, and geodetic mass balance for the glaciers in the Manaslu region of Nepal, a previously undocumented region of the Himalayas. We studied changes between 1970 (for select glaciers), 2000, 2005, and 2013 Glacier change varies across the region and seems to relate to a combination of glacier hypsometry, glacier elevation range and the presence and distribution of supraglacial debris. Lower-elevation, debris-free glaciers with bottom-heavy hypsometries are losing most mass. As the glaciers in the Manaslu region continue to stagnate, an accumulation and thickening of the debris-cover is likely, thereby insulating the glacier and further complicating future glacier responses to climate.
Abstract:The Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) system on board the Terra (EOS AM-1) satellite has been a source of stereoscopic images covering the whole globe at 15-m resolution with consistent quality for over 16 years. The potential of these data in terms of geomorphological analysis and change detection in three dimensions is unrivaled and should be exploited more. Due to uncorrected errors in the image geometry due to sensor motion ("jitter"), however, the quality of the DEMs and orthoimages currently available is often insufficient for a number of applications, including surface change detection. We have therefore developed a series of algorithms packaged under the name MicMac ASTER (MMASTER). It is composed of a tool to compute Rational Polynomial Coefficient (RPC) models from the ASTER metadata, a method that improves the quality of the matching by identifying and correcting jitter-induced cross-track parallax errors and a correction for along-track jitter when computing differences between DEMs (either with another MMASTER DEM or with another data source). Our method outputs more precise DEMs with less unmatched areas and reduced overall noise compared to NASA's standard AST14DMO product. The algorithms were implemented in the open source photogrammetric library and software suite MicMac. Here, we briefly examine the potential of MMASTER-produced DEMs to investigate a variety of geomorphological changes, including river erosion, seismic deformation, changes in biomass, volcanic deformation and glacier mass balance.
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