Tasche [Tasche, D., 1999. Risk contributions and performance measurement. Working paper, Technische Universität München] introduces a capital allocation principle where the capital allocated to each risk unit can be expressed in terms of its contribution to the conditional tail expectation (CTE) of the aggregate risk. Panjer [Panjer, H.H., 2002. Measurement of risk, solvency requirements and allocation of capital within financial conglomerates. Institute of Insurance and Pension Research, University of Waterloo, Research Report 01-15] derives a closed-form expression for this allocation rule in the multivariate normal case. Landsman and Valdez [Landsman, Z., Valdez, E., 2002. Tail conditional expectations for elliptical distributions. North American Actuarial J. 7 (4)] generalize Panjer's result to the class of multivariate elliptical distributions.In this paper we provide an alternative and simpler proof for the CTE-based allocation formula in the elliptical case. Furthermore, we derive accurate and easy computable closed-form approximations for this allocation formula for sums that involve normal and lognormal risks.
In this paper we investigate the approximations for the distribution function of a sum S of lognormal random variables. These approximations are obtained by considering the conditional expectation E[S | Λ] of S with respect to a conditioning random variable Λ.The choice of Λ is crucial in order to obtain accurate approximations. The different alternatives for Λ that have been proposed in the literature to date are 'global' in the sense that Λ is chosen such that the entire distribution of the approximation E[S | Λ] is 'close' to the corresponding distribution of the original sum S.In an actuarial or a financial context one is often only interested in a particular tail of the distribution of S. Therefore in this paper we propose approximations E[S | Λ] which are only locally optimal, in the sense that the relevant tail of the distribution of E[S | Λ] is an accurate approximation for the corresponding tail of the distribution of S. Numerical illustrations reveal that local optimal choices for Λ can improve the quality of the approximations in the relevant tail significantly.We also explore the asymptotic properties of the approximations E[S | Λ] and investigate links with results from [S. Asmussen, Rojas-Nandayapa, Sums of dependent lognormal random variables: Asymptotics and simulation, Stochastic Series at Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Aarhus, Research Report number 469, 2005]. Finally, we briefly address the sub-optimality of Asian options from the point of view of risk averse decision makers with a fixed investment horizon.
Even in case of the Brownian motion as most natural rate of return model it appears too difficult to obtain analytic expressions for most risk measures of constant continuous annuities. In literature the so-called comonotonic approximations have been proposed but these still require the evaluation of integrals. In this paper we show that these integrals can sometimes be computed, and we obtain explicit approximations for some popular risk measures for annuities.Next, we show how these results can be used to obtain fully analytic expressions for lower and upper bounds for the price of a continuously sampled European-style Asian option with fixed exercise price. These analytic lower bound prices are as sharp as those from [Rogers, L.C.G., Shi, Z., 1995. The value of an Asian option. J. Appl. Probab. 32, 1077-1088], if not sharper, but in contrast do not require any longer the evaluation of a two-dimensional or a one-dimensional integral.
Dollar cost averaging (DCA) is a widely employed investment strategy in financial markets. At the same time it is also well documented that such gradual policy is sub-optimal from the point of view of risk averse decision makers with a fixed investment horizon T > 0. However, an explicit strategy that would be preferred by all risk averse decision makers did not yet appear in the literature. In this paper, we give a novel proof for the suboptimality of DCA when (log) returns are governed by Lévy processes and we construct a dominating strategy explicitly. The optimal strategy we propose is static and consists in purchasing a suitable portfolio of path-independent options. Next, we discuss a market governed by a Brownian motion in more detail. We show that the dominating strategy amounts to setting up a portfolio of power options. We provide evidence that the relative performance of DCA becomes worse in volatile markets, but also give some motivation to support its use. We also analyse DCA in presence of a minimal guarantee, explore the continuous setting and discuss the (non) uniqueness of the dominating strategy.
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