Prognostics gained a lot of research attention over the last decade, not the least due to the rise of data-driven prediction models. Also hybrid approaches are being developed that combine physics-based and data-driven models for better performance. However, limited attention is given to prognostics for varying operational and environmental conditions. In fact, varying operational and environmental conditions can significantly influence the remaining useful life of assets. A powerful hybrid tool for prognostics is Bayesian filtering, where a physical degradation model is updated based on realtime data. Although these types of filters are widely studied for prognostics, application for assets in varying conditions is rarely considered in literature. In this paper, it is proposed to apply an unscented Kalman filter for prognostics under varying operational conditions. Four scenarios are described in which a distinction is made between the level in which real-time and future loads are known and between short-term and long-term prognostics. The method is demonstrated on an artificial crack growth case study with frequently changing stress ranges in two different stress profiles. After this specific case, the generic application of the method is discussed. A positioning diagram is presented, indicating in which situations the proposed filter is useful and feasible. It is demonstrated that incorporation of physical knowledge can lead to highly accurate prognostics due to a degradation model in which uncertainty in model parameters is reduced. It is also demonstrated that in case of limited physical knowledge, data can compensate for missing physics to yield reasonable predictions.

A prognostic algorithm can guarantee high reliability and availability of machinery of structures at acceptable costs. This paper proposes to use a particle filter for atmospheric corrosion prognostics, which bridges the gap between corrosion modeling and corrosion monitoring. The applied particle filter only takes temperature and monitored mass loss as input and is based on Arrhenius equation. The output of the particle filter is a probability distribution of the remaining useful life that considers uncertainties on the process, the model and future weather conditions. The effectiveness of the approach is demonstrated by a case study composed from monthly exposure tests performed by the National Institute of Materials Science in Japan. It is shown that the particle filter estimates suitable model parameters of the corrosion model to give good remaining useful life estimations, while only requiring a relatively simple corrosion model. In new practical applications challenges remain in parameter selection and initialization of the algorithm. Furthermore, the method should be validated on an actual long-term corrosion process.

A prognostic algorithm can guarantee high reliability and availability of machinery of structures at acceptable costs. This paper proposes to use a particle filter for atmospheric corrosion prognostics, which bridges the gap between corrosion modeling and corrosion monitoring. The applied particle filter only takes temperature and monitored mass loss as input and is based on Arrhenius equation. The output of the particle filter is a probability distribution of the remaining useful life that considers uncertainties on the process, the model and future weather conditions. The effectiveness of the approach is demonstrated by a case study composed from monthly exposure tests performed by the National Institute of Materials Science in Japan. It is shown that the particle filter estimates suitable model parameters of the corrosion model to give good remaining useful life estimations, while only requiring a relatively simple corrosion model. In new practical applications challenges remain in parameter selection and initialization of the algorithm. Furthermore, the method should be validated on an actual long-term corrosion process.