Background
Loss to follow‐up (
LTFU
) is common in randomized controlled trials. However, its potential impact on primary outcomes from cardiovascular randomized controlled trials is not known.
Methods and Results
We conducted a prospective systematic review (
PROSPERO
:
CRD
42019121959) for randomized controlled trials published in 8 leading journals over 5 years from January 2014 to December 2018. Extent, reporting, and handling of
LTFU
data were recorded, and the proportion of a trial's primary outcome results that lose statistical significance was calculated after making plausible assumptions for the intervention and control arms. These assumptions could drive differential treatment effects between the groups considering relative event incidence between
LTFU
participants and those included in the primary outcome. We identified 117 randomized controlled trials of which 91 (78%) trials reported
LTFU
, 23 (20%) reported no
LTFU
, and 3 (3%) trials did not report on whether
LTFU
occurred. The median percentage of study participants lost to follow‐up was 2% (interquartile range, 0.33%–5.3%). Only 10 trials (9%) had a low cluster of risk factors for impairment in trial quality. The percentage of trials losing statistical significance varied from 2% when the relative event incidence for
LTFU
between the randomized groups was 1 for the intervention arm and 1.5 for the control arm to 16% when the relative event incidence was 3 for the intervention arm and 1 for the control arm.
Conclusions
Almost 1 in 6 (16%) cardiovascular randomized trials published in leading journals may have a change in the primary outcome if plausible assumptions are made about differential event rates of participants lost to follow up. There is scope for improvement arising from
LTFU
in randomized trials in cardiovascular medicine.
Registration
URL
:
https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero
; Unique identifier:
CRD
42019121959.
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