The science and management of infectious disease are entering a new stage. Increasingly public policy to manage epidemics focuses on motivating people, through social distancing policies, to alter their behavior to reduce contacts and reduce public disease risk. Person-to-person contacts drive human disease dynamics. People value such contacts and are willing to accept some disease risk to gain contact-related benefits. The cost-benefit trade-offs that shape contact behavior, and hence the course of epidemics, are often only implicitly incorporated in epidemiological models. This approach creates difficulty in parsing out the effects of adaptive behavior. We use an epidemiological-economic model of disease dynamics to explicitly model the trade-offs that drive person-toperson contact decisions. Results indicate that including adaptive human behavior significantly changes the predicted course of epidemics and that this inclusion has implications for parameter estimation and interpretation and for the development of social distancing policies. Acknowledging adaptive behavior requires a shift in thinking about epidemiological processes and parameters.susceptible-infected-recovered model | R 0 | reproductive number | bioeconomics T he science and management of infectious disease is entering a new stage. The increasing focus on incentive structures to motivate people to engage in social distancing-reducing interpersonal contacts and hence public disease risk (1)-changes what health authorities need from epidemiological models. Social distancing is not new-for centuries humans quarantined infected individuals and shunned the obviously ill, but new approaches are being used to deal with modern social interactions. Scientific development of social distancing public policies requires that epidemiological models explicitly address behavioral responses to disease risk and other incentives affecting contact behavior. This paper models the role of adaptive behavior in an epidemiological system. Recognizing adaptive behavior means explicitly incorporating behavioral responses to disease risk and other incentives into epidemiological models (2, 3). The workhorse of modern epidemiology, the compartmental epidemiological model (4, 5), does not explicitly include behavioral responses to disease risk. The transmission factors in these models combine and confound human behavior and biological processes. We develop a simple compartmental model that explicitly incorporates adaptive behavior and show that this modification alters understanding of standard epidemiological metrics. For example, the basic reproductive number, R 0 , is a function of biological processes and human behavior, but R 0 lacks a behavioral interpretation in the existing literature. Biological and behavioral feedbacks muddle R 0 's biological interpretation and confound its estimation.Prior approaches that incorporate behavior into epidemiological models generally fall into three categories: specification of nonlinear contact rate functions, expanded epidemiologi...

No abstract

Nine neurodegenerative diseases, collectively referred to as polyglutamine (polyQ) diseases, are caused by expansion of a coding CAG DNA trinucleotide repeat. PolyQ diseases show a strong inverse correlation between CAG repeat length and age of disease onset (AO). Despite this, individuals with identical repeat expansion alleles can have highly variable disease onset indicating that other factors also influence AO. We examined AO in 148 individuals in 57 sibships from the SCA2 founder population in Cuba. The mutant CAG repeat allele explained 57% of AO variance. To estimate heritability of the residual variance after correction for SCA2 repeat length, we applied variance component analysis and determined the coefficient of intraclass correlation. We found that 55% of the residual AO variance was familial. To test candidate modifier alleles in this population, we selected 64 unrelated individuals from a set of 394 individuals who were highly discordant for AO after correction for SCA2 CAG repeat length. We hypothesized that long normal alleles in the other 8 polyQ disease genes were associated with premature disease onset in SCA2. Of the 8 genes tested, only long normal CAG repeats in the CACNA1A gene were associated with disease onset earlier than expected based on SCA2 CAG repeat size using non-parametric tests for alleles (P < 0.04) and genotypes (P < 0.023) after correction for multiple comparisons. CACNA1A variation explained 5.8% of the residual variation in AO. The CACNA1A calcium channel subunit represents an excellent candidate as a modifier of disease in SCA2. It is highly expressed in Purkinje cells (PCs) and is essential for the generation of the P/Q current and the complex spike in PCs. In contrast to other polyQ proteins, which are nuclear, the CACNA1A and SCA2 proteins are both cytoplasmic. Furthermore, small pathologic expansions of the polyQ domain in the CACNA1A protein lead to PC degeneration in SCA6. Future studies are needed to determine whether the modifier effect of CACNA1A relates to neuronal dysfunction or cell death of Purkinje neurons.

Background: The initial evaluations of the introduction of legislation that regulates smoking in enclosed public places in European countries, describe an important effect in the control of exposure to environmental tobacco smoke. However, the evidence is still limited. The objective of this study is to estimate the short-term effects of the comprehensive "Tobacco control law" introduced in Spain on January 2006, which includes a total ban of smoking in workplaces and a partial limitation of smoking in bars and restaurants.

To identify possible factors affecting the psychological impact of pre-symptomatic testing for spinocerebellar ataxia type 2 (SCA2) and familial amyloid polyneuropathy (FAP ATTRV30M), we studied (1) the effect of previous experience with the disease in the family, (2) kinship with the closest affected relative and (3) gender of affected parent, when adapting to test results; as well as (4) differences in the course of psychological wellbeing in 63 subjects ( 28 at-risk for FAP ATTRV30M, and 35 at risk for SCA2), who pursued predictive testing for these diseases, in Cuba and in Portugal. Our research shows that individuals with little or no experience with the disease in their family exhibited more anxiety; at-risk subjects for SCA2 or FAP ATTRV30M who had a first degree relative with the disease showed lower levels of anxiety and depression during pre-symptomatic testing. Also those with an affected mother had lower levels of depression, either immediately, or one year after receipt of test results. Adaptation to pre-symptomatic testing results differed for subjects at-risk for the two different conditions. Unlike the FAP ATTRV30M families, carriers for SCA2 reported pathological levels of depression immediately after-testing (3 weeks), although those levels had returned to normal levels at 6 months. Subjects at-risk for FAP ATTRV30M tended to have less anxiety than those tested for SCA2, at the one-year follow-up. Overall, depression levels improved over time, while anxiety remained more constant. A longer awareness of the disease in the family, closer kinship, and a transmitting mother all lessened the impact of pre-symptomatic testing, as expressed by the post-test levels of anxiety and depression.