Warming Effects on a Mexican Coastal Lagoon diatoms. Algal blooms were composed by species adapted to high temperatures and nutrients depletion in 2015, while in 2016 and 2017 were composed by ruderalstrategist species and they were boosted by the nutrient pulses associated with the spring upwellings. The fall algal bloom, typical of subtropical coastal lagoons, was observed only in 2016 and it was confined to the interior of the lagoon where there are local inputs of nutrients. In 2015 and 2016 there was a succession of diatoms and dinoflagellates related to the rising of temperature while in 2017 this pattern changed because of the strong upwellings. The relationships of water temperature and silicate with a ratio of diatoms' cell abundance, was analyzed using generalized additive models (GAMs), showing significant correlations but different trends in some years. The species richness of diatom blooms was high; on the other hand, species diversity increased at the end of spring and early summer. The seasonal pattern of zooplankton biomass showed changes along the 3 years, but the most noticeable was an increase during winter and early spring 2015 and the lack of the usual high values of June-July in 2017. The seasonal pattern of the phytoplankton abundance was different in comparison with the 1982-1983 El Niño while the zooplankton was similar among the three strongest El Niño. The changes we observed strongly suggest that the warming caused by those phenomena highly affected the upwelling strength, the length of the temperate and warm seasons and the hydrology. Phenology of phytoplankton and zooplankton changed after the strong perturbation under the El Niño, and possibly The Blob. The recovery of phytoplankton biomass began in 2017, but its taxonomic composition was not adequate to support the zooplankton recovery.

Fishery and size data by sex of 28,110 blue sharks (Prionace glauca) from 2162 longline sets documented by observers on board 204 fishery trips from the industrial fleet based in Ensenada, Mexico during 2006–2016, were used to conduct a spatial–temporal analysis of the catch‐per‐unit‐effort (CPUE) and its relationship with climate indices along the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula. Catch length analysis by maturity groups indicated catches were composed mainly by juvenile females (58–199 cm TL) and males (60–179 cm TL). Relationships of seasonal CPUE with sea surface temperature (SST) and Chlorophyll‐a (Chl) were analyzed determining aggregations were in areas characterized by oceanographic physical processes. From the exploratory analysis of annual correlations of climate indices with CPUE, the local climate SanDiAs Index explained most variation in CPUE. A generalized additive model (GAM) with 13 predictor variables was applied to gain insight on their relationship with the total CPUE by size and sex groups. The model explained 50.5% of the total blue shark CPUE and 65.5% for juvenile females. The GAM results revealed blue shark CPUE is influenced by five relevant factors: SST, NPGO, year, latitude with distance to coast and quarter interactions, and hooks set. There is a trend to increase or decrease of CPUE when compared with the delay of NEI and SanDiAs indices in more than 1 year. Local and regional climate indices can be successful tools for forecasting blue shark catches in the Northwestern Mexican Pacific.