Background Procedural pain is a common burden in critical care treatment and the prediction of nociceptive reactions remains challenging. Thus, we investigated the Behavioural Pain Scale (BPS), the Critical Pain Observational Tool (CPOT), the nociceptive flexion reflex (NFR), the pupillary dilation reflex (PDR) and the Richmond Agitation–Sedation Scale (RASS) as predictors of behavioural reactions to nociceptive procedures. Methods In this monocentric, prospective, observational study, we analysed data of 128 critically ill adults unable to self‐report pain to investigate the predictability of behavioural reactions to two procedures: endotracheal suctioning and turning. Next to routine clinical data, CPOT, BPS, PDR, NFR, RASS, propofol and sufentanil doses were recorded before the procedures. Results For endotracheal suctioning, NFR, BPS, CPOT and RASS showed predictive performances significantly better than chance, but none of them performed significantly better than the sufentanil dose rate. For turning, BPS, CPOT and RASS showed predictive performances significantly better than chance, but only the RASS performed significantly better than the propofol dose rate. Conclusions Behavioural reactions to both investigated clinical procedures can be predicted by observational scales or nociceptive reflexes. For endotracheal suctioning, none of the predictors performed superior to using the sufentanil dose rate as a predictor. As using sufentanil as a predictor requires no extra effort in contrast to the other predictors, none of the here investigated tools seem advisable for predicting behavioural reactions to endotracheal suctioning. For patient turning, the RASS predicts reactions better than any other tool. Significance In this observational study, we demonstrate that behavioural reactions to potentially nociceptive procedures in critical care treatment can be predicted by observational scales and nociceptive reflexes. However, for endotracheal suctioning, none of the predictors is superior to using the opioid dose rate as a predictor. For patient turning, the RASS predicts reactions better than any other parameters.