Abstract. Mechanisms driving the intensification and propagation direction of extratropical cyclones are an active field of research. Dry-dynamic forcing factors have been established as fundamental drivers of the deepening and propagation of extratropical cyclones, but their climatological interplay, geographical distribution, and relatedness to the observed cyclone deepening and propagation direction remain unknown. This study considers two key dry-dynamic forcing factors, the Eady growth rate (EGR) and the upper-level induced quasi-geostrophic lifting (QGω), and relates them to the surface deepening rates and the propagation direction during the cyclones' growth phase. To this aim, a feature-based cyclone tracking is used, and the forcing environment is climatologically analysed based on ERA-Interim data. The interplay is visualized by means of a forcing histogram, which allows one to identify different combinations of EGR and QGω and their combined influence on the cyclone deepening (12 h sea-level pressure change) and propagation direction. The key results of the study are as follows. (i) The geographical locations of four different forcing categories, corresponding to cyclone growth in environments characterized by low QGω and low EGR (Q↓E↓), low QGω but high EGR (Q↓E↑), high QGω and low EGR (Q↑E↓), and high QGω and EGR (Q↑E↑), display distinct hot spots with only mild overlaps. For instance, cyclone growth in a Q↑E↑ forcing environment is found in the entrance regions of the North Pacific and Atlantic storm tracks. Category Q↓E↑ is typically found over continental North America, along the southern tip of Greenland, over parts of East Asia, and over the western North Pacific. In contrast, category Q↑E↓ dominates the subtropics. (ii) The four categories are associated with different stages of the cyclones' growth phase: large EGR forcing typically occurs earlier, during the growth phase at genesis, while large QGω forcing attains its maximum amplitude later towards maturity. (iii) Poleward cyclone propagation is strongest over the North Pacific and North Atlantic, and the poleward propagation tendency becomes more pronounced as the deepening rate gets larger. Zonal, or even equatorward, propagation on the other hand is characteristic for cyclones developing in the lee of mountain ranges, e.g. to the lee of the Rocky Mountains. The exact location of maximum QGω forcing relative to the surface cyclone centre is found to be a good indicator for the direction of propagation, while no information on the propagation direction can be inferred from the EGR. Ultimately, the strength of the poleward propagation and of the deepening is inherently connected to the two dry-dynamic forcing factors, which allow cyclone development in distinct environments to effectively be identified.

Abstract. Mechanisms driving the intensification and propagation direction of extratropical cyclones are an active field of research. Dry-dynamic forcing factors have been established as fundamental drivers of the deepening and propagation of extratropical cyclones, but their climatological interplay, geographical distribution and relatedness to the observed cyclone deepening and propagation direction remains unknown. This study considers two key dry-dynamic forcing factors, the Eady Growth Rate (EGR) and the upper-level induced quasi-geostrophic lifting (QGω), and relates them to the surface deepening rates and the propagation direction during the cyclones' growth phase. To this aim, a feature-based cyclone tracking is used and the forcing environment is climatologically analyzed based on ERA-Interim data. The interplay is visualized by means of a forcing histogram, which allows one to identify different combinations of EGR and QGω and their combined influence on the cyclone deepening (12-hour sea-level pressure change) and propagation direction. The key results of the study are: (i) The geographical locations of four different forcing categories, corresponding to cyclone growth in environments characterized by low QGω and low EGR (Q↓E↓), low QGω but high EGR (Q↓E↑), high QGω and low EGR (Q↑E↓) and high QGω and EGR (Q↑E↑), displays distinct hot spots with only mild overlaps. For instance, cyclone growth in a Q↑E↑ forcing environment is found in the entrance regions of the North Pacific and Atlantic storm tracks. Category Q↓E↑ is typical found over continental North America, along the southern tip of Greenland, over parts of East Asia and the western North Pacific. In contrast, category Q↑E↓ dominates the subtropics; (ii) the four categories are associated with different stages of the cyclones' growth phase: large EGR forcing occurs typically earlier, during the growth phase at genesis, while large QGω forcing attains its maximum amplitude later towards maturity; (iii) poleward cyclone propagation is strongest over the North Pacific and North Atlantic, and the poleward propagation tendency becomes more pronounced as the deepening rate gets larger; zonal, or even equatorward propagation, on the other hand, is characteristic for cyclones developing in the lee of mountain ranges, e.g., to the lee of the Rocky Mountains. The exact location of maximum QGω forcing relative to the surface cyclone center is found to be a good indicator for the direction of propagation, while no information on the propagation direction can be inferred from the EGR. Ultimately, the strength of the poleward propagation and of the deepening are inherently connected and the two dry-dynamic forcing factors allow cyclone development in distinct environments to effectively be identified.

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<p>We present findings from an analysis of weather regimes over the North Atlantic and Europe in present and future climate conditions. Weather regimes strongly influence the statistical distribution of surface weather variables. We use a recently developed, all-season North Atlantic - European weather regime classification with seven regimes. These regimes were originally identified in ERA-Interim reanalyses and, in this study, we investigate how they are represented in climate simulations using the CESM1 large ensemble for present-day and future (RCP8.5) climate conditions. With these regimes, the classification of the flow conditions in the considered region goes beyond the classical categorization according to the North Atlantic oscillation index; the weather regimes explicitly capture different flavors of strong zonal flows and the occurrence of blocking over Greenland, Scandinavia, and Central Europe, respectively. In ERA-Interim they explain 70% of the variability in geopotential height at 500 hPa year-round. Our analysis quantifies how well CESM1 represents the statistics of the weather regimes in present-day climate and how strongly their frequencies change in the future climate scenario. In addition, we identify statistical relationships between weather regimes and their resulting impacts on spatial patterns of surface variables such as precipitation. We compare those patterns and characteristics of the weather regimes identified in ERA-Interim to their characteristics in simulations of present and future climate conditions.</p><p>This analysis leads to insight into the representation of and changes in atmospheric circulation in one particular climate model, and, at the same time, it quantifies how well the climate model captures the observed link between surface weather and weather regimes. This approach contributes to improving our understanding of atmospheric circulation changes and their impact on a regional scale, and it may benefit the interpretation and communication of climate projections.</p>

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