Aim Elucidate the potential impacts of climate changes on the distribution and conservation of the multiple habitats of the Mata Atlântica biodiversity hotspot, which are often treated as a unique entity in ecological studies. Location The whole extension of the South American Atlantic Forest Domain plus forest intrusions into the neighbouring Cerrado and Pampa Domains, which comprises rain forest (‘core’ habitat) and five environmentally marginal habitats, namely high elevation/latitude forest, rock outcrop habitats, riverine forest, semideciduous forest and restinga woodlands. Time period Current (2000) and future scenarios (2050 and 2070). Major taxa studied Tree species. Methods We modelled the responses of 282 diagnostic tree species, using multiple algorithms and distinct scenarios of climate change (828,234 projections). Results Potential loss of suitable environment summed 50.4% in semideciduous forest, 58.6% in riverine forest and 66% in rock outcrop habitats. Predictions for rain forest (12.2%), restinga woodlands (7.6%) and high elevation/latitude forest (5.2%) showed that overall loss of suitable environment will be relatively less severe for these habitats. Habitats that are confined to narrow edaphic conditions, namely rock outcrop habitats and riverine forest, are less studied and will likely suffer the greatest loss of biodiversity because their species are more dispersal limited. Main conclusions Because these habitats occupy distinct environmental conditions, lumping them in ecological analyses might lead to erroneous interpretations in studies aiming to evaluate the impacts of global change in the Mata Atlântica biodiversity hotspot. This reinforces the importance of our approach and urges for conservation strategies that account for habitat heterogeneity in the Mata Atlântica and other species‐rich environments.

Aim: Araucaria moist forests are particularly vulnerable to climate change due to their strict climatic requirements and patchy distribution. Therefore, identifying areas where these forests are expected to lose or retain climatically suitable space (i.e., climate change refugia) is urgently required. Here, we modeled the current and future climatic suitability for Araucaria moist forests aiming: (a) to identify areas of suitable climate (i.e., in situ and ex situ refugia); (b) to identify areas of climate retraction; and (c) to assess the effectiveness of protected areas to capture climatically suitable space.Location: Araucaria moist forests ecoregion, southern Brazil and northeast Argentina.Methods: We mapped the potential distribution of Araucaria moist forests using an ensemble forecasting approach with 18 indicator tree species (all wet-and cold-adapted taxa), six algorithms, eight global circulation models, three representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5), and three periods (current, 2050, and 2070). Results:We predicted substantial losses of future climatic suitability across almost the entire range where these forests occur, ranging from 43% to 64% under optimistic (RCP4.5/2050) and high-emissions (RCP8.5/2070) scenarios. We found that the protected-areas network captured only 3% of the climatically suitable space under current conditions. We found that only 4% (top 1% of cells) and 12% (top 5% of cells) of the potential refugia would be protected in the future, with less than half of their areas corresponding to in situ refugia.Conclusions: Projected losses of potential distribution and the low efficacy of protected areas to buffer climate change impacts point to a high-risk scenario for Araucaria moist forests in the near future. Cold-adapted tree species likely will face increased extinction risk, especially as climate change will interact with other anthropogenic drivers.

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While the international pet trade and habitat destruction have been extensively discussed as major threats to the survival of the pancake tortoise (Malacochersus tornieri), the impact of climate change on the species remains unknown. In this study, we used species distribution modelling to predict the current and future distribution of pancake tortoises in Zambezian and Somalian biogeographical regions. We used 224 pancake tortoise occurrences obtained from Tanzania, Kenya and Zambia to estimate suitable and stable areas for the pancake tortoise in all countries present in these regions. We also used a protected area network to assess how many of the suitable and stable areas are protected for the conservation of this critically endangered species. Our model predicted the expansion of climatically suitable habitats for pancake tortoises from four countries and a total area of 90,668.75 km2 to ten countries in the future and an area of 343,459.60–401,179.70 km2. The model also showed that a more significant area of climatically suitable habitat for the species lies outside of the wildlife protected areas. Based on our results, we can predict that pancake tortoises may not suffer from habitat constriction. However, the species will continue to be at risk from the international pet trade, as most of the identified suitable habitats remain outside of protected areas. We suggest that efforts to conserve the pancake tortoise should not only focus on protected areas but also areas that are unprotected, as these comprise a large proportion of the suitable and stable habitats available following predicted future climate change.

Geographical range is one of the critical features for species conservation assessment.Nevertheless, species distribution is frequently unknown, undervalued or overlooked. During a broad taxonomic and floristic study of the southern South American prickly pear species (Opuntia spp.), new records of a previously endemic Argentinian taxon have been found in Uruguay and Brazil. Molecular phylogenetic inference was carried out to further evaluate the identity of the new records, and ecological niche models were implemented to test how the new records would fit in the previous known distribution of the species. Through molecular and morphological evidence, we confirmed the new records of Opuntia bonaerensis for Brazilian and Uruguayan floras and discussed its phylogenetic relationship and morphologic similarities with closely related species. Our new records uncovered a distributional pattern congruent with the Neotropical Peripampasic Orogenic Arc, which must be further explored to better determine the biogeographic history of the species. Ecological niche models (ENM) revealed that O. bonaerensis had a putative ancient distribution across the grasslands and shrublands in the Pampean region largely congruent with the populations found in Brazil and Uruguay, suggesting relictual Pleistocene populations of the species and the role of glacial/interglacial cycles on the distribution of the species. In a prospective climate change scenario, ENM suggests that the species would in general be more restricted to the southernmost limits of the Pampa region and previous outlying records from Mendoza (Argentina) are a putative future refuge for O.bonaerensis. The importance of these new records for biodiversity and conservation assessment efforts that are ongoing at different scales in Brazil and neighbor areas is highlighted..