ResumoApesar da queda da taxa de juros observada no Brasil nas últimas décadas, combinada com regulações especificas sobre a Previdência Complementar Aberta que incentivam a tomada de risco de longo prazo, as instituições desse segmento aparentam ser consideravelmente sensíveis a fatores de curto prazo, ao mesmo tempo que evitam exposição a fatores de risco de prazos longos. Com dados de alocação de portfólio de grandes entidades, implementamos um modelo VAR para avaliar o impacto da taxa de juros sobre decisões de gestão de carteira e realizamos uma análise contrafactual a fim de definir o efeito causal da regulação sobre a tomada adicional de risco. Os resultados indicam que aumentos na taxa de juros geram reduções significantes e persistentes de investimentos em ativos mais arriscados e de maior maturidade, ao passo que a regulação implementada não foi capaz de forçar a maior tomada de risco por parte das instituições, além de gerar distorções em segmentos do mercado financeiro brasileiro.Palavras-chave: Previdência Complementar Aberta; Portfólio; Taxa de juros; Longo Prazo; Regulação.Código JEL: E43, G11, G28, J32. AbstractDespite the fall in the interest rate observed in Brazil in recent decades, and specific regulations on the private pension segment that encourage long-term risk taking, institutions in this segment appear to be considerably sensitive to short-term factors, while avoiding exposure to long-term risk factors. With portfolio allocation data from large entities, we implemented a VAR model to evaluate the impact of interest rate changes on portfolio management decisions and performed a counterfactual analysis to define the causal effect of regulation on additional risk taking. Results indicate that interest rate increases lead to significant and persistent reduction of investment in riskier assets with longer maturities, while the implemented regulation was not able to force greater risk-taking by institutions, in addition to generating distortions in segments of the Brazilian financial market.
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