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Climate change influences crop yield vis-à-vis crop production to a greater extent in countries like Nepal where agriculture depends largely on natural circumstances. Plausible scenarios of climate change like higher temperatures and changes in precipitation will directly affect crop yields. Therefore, this study assesses the effect of observed climate variables on yield of major food-crops in Nepal, namely rice, wheat, maize, millet, barley and potato based on regression model for historical climatic data and yield data for the food-crops. The yield growth rate of all the food-crops is positive. However, the growth rate for all crops, except potato and wheat, is below population growth rate during the period. Climate variables like temperature and precipitation are the important determinants of crop yields. Trend of precipitation is neither increasing nor decreasing significantly during this period. However, temperature is increasing by 0.7 0 C during the period. Climate variables show some influences on the yield of these major food-crops in Nepal. Increase in summer rain and maximum temperature has contributed positively to rice yield. Also, increase in summer rain and minimum temperature has positive impact on potato yield. However, increase in summer rain and maximum temperature adversely affected the yield of maize and millet. Increase in wheat and barley yield is contributed by current trend of winter rain and temperature. Consideration of spatial variation in similar type of study in Nepal that will be helpful in identifying the region more vulnerable to climate change in terms of crop yield is highly recommended.

ABSTRACT

An understanding of the dynamics of persistent poverty that is not static, contrary to its portrayal in the literature, is important for policy‐makers. We therefore performed multinomial logistic regression and binary logistic regression on panel data to capture rural poverty dynamics in Nepal's Far‐Western Hills. The former revealed that the risk of experiencing chronic poverty was significantly higher for households in the more remote village development committee of Melauli, those headed by women or older men with less education, and those with higher dependency ratios and lower participation levels in community‐based organisations. The latter, entailing disaggregation of transient poverty, revealed a higher risk of moving into poverty for members of occupational castes (OCs) and housevholds in Melauli because of their limited socioeconomic assets. The occurrence of natural disasters also increased households’ risks of moving into poverty. Conversely, more years of schooling among household heads facilitated movements out of poverty. Thus, poverty reduction programmes focusing on relatively remote villages and OCs that promote educational access and employment generation are necessary to address chronic and transient poverty. Further, the introduction of temporary relief programmes following natural disasters, and of insurance schemes for covering associated losses, will alleviate transient poverty.