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Agricultural products are essential for human survival, and strengthening agricultural trade cooperation between China and countries along the “Belt and Road” (B&R) can promote food security, but there are few studies on bilateral trade fluctuation factors in the literature. This paper uses the modified multi-country multi-product CMS (constant market share) model and the two-country multi-product CMS model to decompose the fluctuation of agricultural trade between China and B&R countries by stage, region, and agricultural product type. The results show that in recent years, in the fluctuation of China’s exports to B&R countries, in overall agricultural products, the demand effect plays a major hindering role, accounting for −9.2%; in the region, Southeast Asia has the largest share of trade, which is mainly pulled by the joint demand effect, structural effect and competitiveness effect; in specific agricultural products, animal, fruit and vegetable, and food processing products are mainly pulled by competitiveness. In the fluctuation of B&R countries’ export to China, in overall agricultural products, the demand effect pulls the largest share, accounting for 72.55%; in the region, Southeast Asia is mainly driven by the joint pull of demand effect, structural effect. and competitiveness effect; in specific agricultural products, animal, fruit and vegetable, and food processing products are mainly driven by the pull of demand effect. The findings of this paper can provide a basis for making decisions on food security cooperation between China and B&R countries.

Enhancing trade in agricultural products between China and countries along the “Belt and Road” (B&R) will help strengthen China’s food security and promote global, sustainable economic development. Based on the agricultural trade data between China and B&R countries from 2001 to 2019, we used the TII index, the HHI index, and the social network analysis method to calculate the trade structure of agricultural products between China and B&R countries, in terms of plane structure and spatial network structure, and analyzed the influencing factors of their spatial network structure. The results show that China’s agricultural trade with B&R countries is highly concentrated in terms of regions and types, the import trade is decentralized, while the export trade is concentrated, and the regions with high trade intensity are mainly concentrated in the countries in close proximity. China’s agricultural trade network with B&R countries has become increasingly close, and China has a significant presence in trade networks. The trade network shows four major segments, and the internal and external trade of each segment has become increasingly close. Water resources, geographical location, transportation, trade agreements, and trade structure are the main influencing factors in the trade network between China and B&R countries. Our findings provide useful insights for informed decision-making in the development of international agricultural sustainable cooperation strategies.