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The overconfidence observed in calibration studies Who will win the election, the incumbent or the chalhas recently been questioned on both psychological lenger?). For each question, subjects select one of the and methodological grounds. In the first part of the two answers and assess the probability that their anarticle we discuss these issues and argue that overconswer is correct. A judge is said to be calibrated if his fidence cannot be explained as a selection bias, and or her probability judgments match the corresponding that it is not eliminated by random sampling of quesrelative frequency of occurrence. Specifically, among all tions. In the second part of the article, we compare answers to which the judge assigns a given probability probability judgments for single events with judg-(say, 75%), the judge is calibrated if 75% of these anments of relative frequency. Subjects received a target swers are in fact correct. individual's personality profile and then predicted the target's responses to a series of binary questions. One METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES

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