BACKGROUND & AIMS:A better understanding of prognostic factors within the heterogeneous spectrum of pediatric Crohn's disease (CD) should improve patient management and reduce complications. We aimed to identify evidence-based predictors of outcomes with the goal of optimizing individual patient management. METHODS: A survey of 202 experts in pediatric CD identified and prioritized adverse outcomes to be avoided. A systematic review of the literature with meta-analysis, when possible, was performed to identify clinical studies that investigated predictors of these outcomes. Multiple national and international face-to-face meetings were held to draft consensus statements based on the published evidence. RESULTS: Consensus was reached on 27 statements regarding prognostic factors for surgery, complications, chronically active pediatric CD, and hospitalization. Prognostic factors for surgery included CD diagnosis during adolescence, growth impairment, NOD2/CARD15 polymorphisms, disease behavior, and positive anti-Saccharomyces cerevisiae antibody status. Isolated colonic disease was associated with fewer surgeries. Older age at presentation, small bowel disease, serology (anti-Saccharomyces cerevisiae antibody, antiflagellin, and OmpC), NOD2/ CARD15 polymorphisms, perianal disease, and ethnicity were risk factors for penetrating (B3) and/or stenotic disease (B2). Male sex, young age at onset, small bowel disease, more active disease, and diagnostic delay may be associated with growth impairment. Malnutrition and higher disease activity were associated with reduced bone density. CONCLUSIONS: These evidence-based consensus statements offer insight into predictors of poor outcomes in pediatric CD and are valuable when developing treatment algorithms and planning future studies. Targeted longitudinal studies are needed to further characterize prognostic factors in pediatric CD and to evaluate the impact of treatment algorithms tailored to individual patient risk.

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Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) presents with disabling symptoms and may lead to insufficient growth and late pubertal development in cases of disease onset during childhood or adolescence. During the last decade, the role of anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF) in the treatment of paediatric-onset IBD has gained more ground. The number of biologicals presently available for children and adolescents with IBD has increased, biosimilars have become available, and practices in adult gastroenterology with regards to anti-TNF have changed. The aim of this study is to review the current evidence on the indications, judicious use, effectiveness and safety of anti-TNF agents in paediatric IBD. A PubMed literature search was performed and included articles published after 2000 using the following terms: child or paediatric, Crohn, ulcerative colitis, inflammatory bowel disease, anti-TNF, TNF alpha inhibitor, infliximab, adalimumab, golimumab and biological. Anti-TNF agents, specifically infliximab and adalimumab, have proven to be effective in moderate and severe paediatric IBD. Therapeutic drug monitoring increases therapy effectiveness and safety. Clinical predictors for anti-TNF response are currently of limited value because of the variation in outcome definitions and follow-ups. Future research should comprise large cohorts and clinical trials comparing groups according to their risk profile in order to provide personalized therapeutic strategies.

ObjectiveIn newly diagnosed paediatric patients with moderate-to-severe Crohn’s disease (CD), infliximab (IFX) is initiated once exclusive enteral nutrition (EEN), corticosteroid and immunomodulator therapies have failed. We aimed to investigate whether starting first-line IFX (FL-IFX) is more effective to achieve and maintain remission than conventional treatment.DesignIn this multicentre open-label randomised controlled trial, untreated patients with a new diagnosis of CD (3–17 years old, weighted Paediatric CD Activity Index score (wPCDAI) >40) were assigned to groups that received five infusions of 5 mg/kg IFX at weeks 0, 2, 6, 14 and 22 (FL-IFX), or EEN or oral prednisolone (1 mg/kg, maximum 40 mg) (conventional). The primary outcome was clinical remission on azathioprine, defined as a wPCDAI <12.5 at week 52, without need for treatment escalation, using intention-to-treat analysis.Results100 patients were included, 50 in the FL-IFX group and 50 in the conventional group. Four patients did not receive treatment as per protocol. At week 10, a higher proportion of patients in the FL-IFX group than in the conventional group achieved clinical (59% vs 34%, respectively, p=0.021) and endoscopic remission (59% vs 17%, respectively, p=0.001). At week 52, the proportion of patients in clinical remission was not significantly different (p=0.421). However, 19/46 (41%) patients in the FL-IFX group were in clinical remission on azathioprine monotherapy without need for treatment escalation vs 7/48 (15%) in the conventional group (p=0.004).ConclusionsFL-IFX was superior to conventional treatment in achieving short-term clinical and endoscopic remission, and had greater likelihood of maintaining clinical remission at week 52 on azathioprine monotherapy.Trial registration numberClinicalTrials.gov Registry (NCT02517684).

BACKGROUND & AIMS: A better understanding of prognostic factors in ulcerative colitis (UC) could improve patient management and reduce complications. We aimed to identify evidence-based predictors for outcomes in pediatric UC, which may be used to optimize treatment algorithms. METHODS: Potential outcomes worthy of prediction in UC were determined by surveying 202 experts in pediatric UC. A systematic review of the literature, with selected meta-analysis, was performed to identify studies that investigated predictors for these outcomes. Multiple national and international meetings were held to reach consensus on evidencebased statements. RESULTS: Consensus was reached on 31 statements regarding predictors of colectomy, acute severe colitis (ASC), chronically active pediatric UC, cancer and mortality. At diagnosis, disease extent (6 studies, N ¼ 627; P ¼ .035), Pediatric Ulcerative Colitis Activity Index score (4 studies, n ¼ 318; P < .001), hemoglobin, hematocrit, and albumin may predict colectomy. In addition, family history of UC (2 studies, n ¼ 557; P ¼ .0004), extraintestinal manifestations (4 studies, n ¼ 526; P ¼ .048), and disease extension over time may predict colectomy, whereas primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) may be protective. Acute severe colitis may be predicted by disease severity at onset and hypoalbuminemia. Higher Pediatric Ulcerative Colitis Activity Index score and C-reactive protein on days 3 and 5 of hospital admission predict failure of intravenous steroids. Risk factors for malignancy included concomitant diagnosis of primary sclerosing cholangitis, longstanding colitis (>10 years), male sex, and younger age at diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: These evidence-based consensus statements offer predictions to be considered for a personalized medicine approach in treating pediatric UC.