Forest and land fires that occur every year are crucial issues in Indonesia, especially in Kepulauan Meranti Regency, Riau. This location is one of the relatively unique locations because almost the entire land area is a peatland. Information on the level of danger of forest and land fires in Meranti Regency is not yet available on a detailed scale. This research aims to map potential hazard areas for forest and land fires in Kepulauan Meranti Regency, Riau. Spatial analysis using Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) with variables of land cover, soil type, distance from rivers, distance from roads, and distance from residentials. The results showed that the area of the potential hazard of forest and land fires in Kepulauan Meranti Regency was dominated by a high hazard level of 245,323.06 ha (68.08%).

Kebakaran hutan dan lahan yang terjadi setiap tahun di Indonesia sebagian besar berlokasi di lahan gambut. Bencana tersebut berdampak besar terhadap berbagai aspek kehidupan, salah satunya adalah terdegradasinya lahan gambut tropis. Pada tahun 2014, kebakaran hutan dan lahan di Kepulauan Meranti turut berkontribusi terhadap bencana kabut asap yang dirasakan hingga ke Singapura dan Malaysia. Pemerintah Indonesia melalui Badan Restorasi Gambut dan Mangrove (BRGM) telah berupaya melakukan restorasi ekosistem gambut. Pemantuan data hotspot dan curah hujan secara rutin dilakukan sebagai salah satu upaya mitigasi bencana kebakaran hutan dan lahan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi pola distribusi hotspot dan variasi Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) serta mengetahui korelasinya terhadap kebakaran hutan dan lahan. Penelitian ini menggunakan data hotspot dari Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) dan curah hujan dari Climate Vunerabilities Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) selama 21 tahun yang dianalisis secara spasial-temporal dan koefisien korelasi Pearson. Sekitar 97.2% atau 7403 hotspot berada pada lahan gambut. Frekuensi hotspot tertinggi terjadi pada 2014, 2005, dan 2019. Distribusi hotspot bulanan mengikuti fluktuasi curah hujan dengan jumlah kejadian tertinggi terjadi pada Februari-Maret. Nilai SPI-1, SPI-3, SPI-4, SPI-6, SPI-12 tahun 2001-2021 bervariasi dari -3.5 hingga 3.0. Selama 21 tahun, Kepulauan Meranti telah mengalami musim basah dan kering yang ekstrim. Nilai SPI dan hotspot bervariasi mengikuti fenomena El Nino dan La Nina. Nilai SPI-1, SPI-3, SPI-4, SPI-6 berkorelasi kuat dengan data hotspot 2001-2021 dengan nilai r lebih dari 60%. Korelasi antara SPI dengan curah hujan mampu meprediksi puncak periode basah dan kering. Variabel hotspot dan SPI tidak dapat dipisahkan karena bisa menjadi salah satu faktor penting yang membantu proses perumusan arahan mitigasi dan adaptasi bencana kebakaran hutan dan lahan.ABSTRACTForest and land fires in Indonesia every year are mainly located on peatlands. The disaster had a significant impact on various aspects of life, one of which was the degradation of tropical peatlands. In 2014, forest and land fires in the Kepulauan Meranti contributed to the haze disaster that was felt as far as Singapore and Malaysia. Through the Peat and Mangrove Restoration Agency (BRGM), the Government of Indonesia has tried to restore the peat ecosystem. Monitoring of hotspot and rainfall data is routinely carried out as one of the efforts to mitigate forest and land fire disasters. This study aims to identify the distribution pattern of hotspots and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) variations and determine their correlation to forest and land fires. This study uses hotspot data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and rainfall from Climate Vulnerabilities Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) for 21 years which were analyzed spatially-temporal and Pearson correlation coefficient. Around 97.2% or 7403 hotspots are on peatlands. The highest frequency of hotspots occurred in 2014, 2005, and 2019. The monthly distribution of hotspots follows fluctuations in rainfall, with the highest number of occurrences occurring from February to March. The values of SPI-1, SPI-3, SPI-4, SPI-6, SPI-12 in 2001-2021 varied from -3.5 to 3.0. For 21 years, the Meranti Islands have experienced extreme wet and dry seasons. The value of SPI and hotspot varies according to El Nino and La Nina phenomena. The values of SPI-1, SPI-3, SPI-4, SPI-6 are strongly correlated with the 2001-2021 hotspot data with an r-value of more than 60%. The correlation between SPI and rainfall can predict the peak of the wet and dry periods. Hotspot and SPI variables cannot be separated because they can be important factors that help formulate directives for mitigation and adaptation to forest and land fire disasters.