Deterministic differential equations are useful tools for mathematical modelling. The consideration of uncertainty into their formulation leads to random differential equations. Solving a random differential equation means computing not only its solution stochastic process but also its main statistical functions such as the expectation and standard deviation. The determination of its first probability density function provides a more complete probabilistic description of the solution stochastic process in each time instant. In this paper, one presents a comprehensive study to determinate the first probability density function to the solution of linear random initial value problems taking advantage of the so-called random variable transformation method. For the sake of clarity, the study has been split into thirteen cases depending on the way that randomness enters into the linear model. In most cases, the analysis includes the specification of the domain of the first probability density function of the solution stochastic process whose determination is a delicate issue. A strong point of the study is the presentation of a wide range of examples, at least one of each of the thirteen casuistries, where both standard and nonstandard probabilistic distributions are considered.

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ElsevierChen Charpentier, BM.; Cortés, J.; Licea Salazar, JA.; Romero, J.; Roselló Ferragud, MD.; Santonja, F.; Villanueva Micó, RJ. (2015). Constructing adaptive generalized polynomial chaos method to measure the uncertainty in continuous models: A computational approach. AbstractDue to errors in measurements and inherent variability in the quantities of interest, models based on random differential equations give more realistic results than their deterministic counterpart. The generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) is a powerful technique used to approximate the solution of these equations when the random inputs follow standard probability distributions. But in many cases these random inputs do not have a standard probability distribution. In this paper, we present a step-by-step constructive methodology to implement directly a useful version of adaptive gPC for arbitrary distributions, extending the applicability of the gPC. The paper mainly focuses on the computational aspects, on the implementation of the method and on the creation of a useful software tool. This tool allows the user to easily change the types of distributions and the order of the expansions, and to study their the usefulness of the method are included.

This paper presents a full probabilistic description of the solution of random SI-type epidemiological models which are based on nonlinear differential equations. This description consists of determining: the first probability density function of the solution in terms of the density functions of the diffusion coefficient and the initial condition, which are assumed to be independent random variables; the expectation and variance functions of the solution as well as confidence intervals and, finally, the distribution of time until a given proportion of susceptibles remains in the population. The obtained formulas are general since they are valid regardless the probability distributions assigned to the random inputs. We also present a pair of illustrative examples including in one of them the application of the theoretical results to model the diffusion of a technology using real data.

This paper deals with the computation of the first probability density function of the solution of random homogeneous linear second-order difference equations by the Random Variable Transformation method. This approach allows us to generalize the classical solution obtained in the deterministic scenario. Several illustrative examples are provided.