The Mediterranean is expected to be one of the most prominent and vulnerable climate change “hotspots” of the twenty-first century, and the physical mechanisms underlying this finding are still not clear. Furthermore, complex interactions and feedbacks involving ocean–atmosphere–land–biogeochemical processes play a prominent role in modulating the climate and environment of the Mediterranean region on a range of spatial and temporal scales. Therefore, it is critical to provide robust climate change information for use in vulnerability–impact–adaptation assessment studies considering the Mediterranean as a fully coupled environmental system. The Mediterranean Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (Med-CORDEX) initiative aims at coordinating the Mediterranean climate modeling community toward the development of fully coupled regional climate simulations, improving all relevant components of the system from atmosphere and ocean dynamics to land surface, hydrology, and biogeochemical processes. The primary goals of Med-CORDEX are to improve understanding of past climate variability and trends and to provide more accurate and reliable future projections, assessing in a quantitative and robust way the added value of using high-resolution and coupled regional climate models. The coordination activities and the scientific outcomes of Med-CORDEX can produce an important framework to foster the development of regional Earth system models in several key regions worldwide.
Abstract. The large uncertainty in the mineral dust direct radiative effect (DRE) hinders projections of future climate change due to anthropogenic activity. Resolving modeled dust mineral speciation allows for spatially and temporally varying refractive indices consistent with dust aerosol composition. Here, for the first time, we quantify the range in dust DRE at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) due to current uncertainties in the surface soil mineralogical content using a dust mineral-resolving climate model. We propagate observed uncertainties in soil mineral abundances from two soil mineralogy atlases along with the optical properties of each mineral into the DRE and compare the resultant range with other sources of uncertainty across six climate models. The shortwave DRE responds region-specifically to the dust burden depending on the mineral speciation and underlying shortwave surface albedo: positively when the regionally averaged annual surface albedo is larger than 0.28 and negatively otherwise. Among all minerals examined, the shortwave TOA DRE and single scattering albedo at the 0.44–0.63 µm band are most sensitive to the fractional contribution of iron oxides to the total dust composition. The global net (shortwave plus longwave) TOA DRE is estimated to be within −0.23 to +0.35 W m−2. Approximately 97 % of this range relates to uncertainty in the soil abundance of iron oxides. Representing iron oxide with solely hematite optical properties leads to an overestimation of shortwave DRE by +0.10 W m−2 at the TOA, as goethite is not as absorbing as hematite in the shortwave spectrum range. Our study highlights the importance of iron oxides to the shortwave DRE: they have a disproportionally large impact on climate considering their small atmospheric mineral mass fractional burden (∼2 %). An improved description of iron oxides, such as those planned in the Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT), is thus essential for more accurate estimates of the dust DRE.
The CALIOPE-EU high-resolution air quality modeling system, namely WRF-ARW/HERMES-EMEP/CMAQ/BSC-DREAM8b, is developed and applied to Europe (12 km × 12 km, 1hr). The model performances are tested in terms of air quality levels and dynamics reproducibility on a yearly basis. The present work describes a quantitative evaluation of gas phase species (O 3 , NO 2 and SO 2 ) and particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) against ground-based measurements from the EMEP (European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme) network for the year 2004. The evaluation is based on statistics. Simulated O 3 achieves satisfactory performances for both daily mean and daily maximum concentrations, especially in summer, with annual mean correlations of 0.66 and 0.69, respectively. Mean normalized errors are comprised within the recommendations proposed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US-EPA). The general trends and daily variations of primary pollutants (NO 2 and SO 2 ) are satisfactory. Daily mean concentrations of NO 2 correlate well with observations (annual correlation r=0.67) but tend to be underestimated. For SO 2 , mean concentrations are well simulated (mean bias=0.5 µg m −3 ) with relatively high annual mean correlation (r=0.60), although peaks are generally overestimated. The dynamics of PM2.5 PM2.5 and PM10 is well reproduced (0.49 < r < 0.62), but mean concentrations * Corresponding author.
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