Objective: To evaluate the prognostic value of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) in patients with aortic stenosis being treated conservatively or undergoing aortic valve replacement (AVR). Methods: 159 patients were followed up for a median of 902 days. 102 patients underwent AVR and 57 were treated conservatively. NT-proBNP at baseline was raised in association with the degree of severity and of functional status. Results: During follow up 21 patients (13%) died of cardiac causes or required rehospitalisation for decompensated heart failure. NT-proBNP at baseline was higher in patients with an adverse outcome than in event-free survivors (median 623 (interquartile range 204-1854) pg/ml v 1054 (687-2960) pg/ml, p = 0.028). This difference was even more obvious in conservatively treated patients (331 (129-881) pg/ml v 1102 (796-2960) pg/ml, p = 0.002). Baseline NT-proBNP independently predicted an adverse outcome in the entire study group and in particular in conservatively treated patients (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.65, p = 0.028 and AUC = 0.82, p = 0.002, respectively) but not in patients undergoing AVR (AUC = 0.544). At a cut-off value of 640 pg/ml, baseline NT-proBNP was discriminative for an adverse outcome. Conclusion: NT-proBNP concentration is related to severity of aortic stenosis and provides independent prognostic information for an adverse outcome. However, this predictive value is limited to conservatively treated patients. Thus, the data suggest that assessing NT-proBNP may have incremental value for selecting the optimal timing of valve replacement.

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