The relationship between weather and wader distributions on non-estuarine coasts is described and used to predict how future wader distributions may respond to climate change. The distributions of eight out of nine species of wader commonly wintering on the non-estuarine coasts of Britain altered between two similar surveys, in 1984/85 and 1997/ 98, that covered 78% and 38% of Britain's 12 594 km of non-estuarine coastline, respectively. These eight species moved at least in part either eastwards along the winter isotherms or northwards. These changes in distribution broadly coincide with a distributional shift towards the species' respective breeding grounds and are correlated with the local winter weather over the period: increasingly mild extreme temperatures and changes in mean rainfall, mean wind speed and wind-chill. Based on the scenarios for Britain's climate in 2020 and 2080, it is predicted that the distributions of the waders will move away from the west. The non-estuarine coasts of Britain hold particularly high proportions of the international flyway populations of Ringed Plover Charadrius hiaticula , Sanderling Calidris alba , Purple Sandpiper Calidris maritima and Ruddy Turnstone Arenaria interpres that are all expected to show continuing decline to 2080. Overwintering waders appear to be good indicators of the effects of climate change.

The potential impact of human disturbance on wintering waterbirds using intertidal mudflats was considered by relating their numbers to the presence of nearby footpaths, roads, railroads, and towns. Data were obtained for six English estuaries from the Wetland Bird Survey Low Tide Count scheme. Counts were undertaken monthly from November to February, and data were available for an average of 2.8 years per estuary for the period 1992-1993 to 1999-2000. Count sections and the positions of man-made landscape features were mapped using a GIS. Generalized linear models tested whether bird numbers varied according to the estuary, month, area, whether or not the section bordered water, and the proportion of each section within a specified distance of each landscape feature. In addition, the proximity of sections to the nearest footpath access point was considered. Numbers of six of nine species, northern shelduck (Tadorna tadorna), red knot (Calidris canutus), dunlin (Calidris alpina), black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa), Eurasian curlew (Numenius arquata) and common redshank (Tringa totanus), were significantly lower where a footpath was close to a count section, while those of brant (Branta bernicla) were greater. Northern shelduck, black-bellied plover (Pluvialis squatarola), dunlin, and black-tailed godwit numbers were reduced close to railroads and those of common ringed plover (Charadrius hiaticula), black-bellied plover, and Eurasian curlew close to roads. Common ringed plover numbers were greater close to towns. The relative distances to which species were affected by footpaths corresponded to published information concerning their flight distances in response to human disturbance. The study provided evidence that sustained disturbance associated with footpaths, roads, and railroads reduced local habitat quality for waterbirds and the carrying capacity of estuaries.

No abstract

No abstract

No abstract