In AIDS Bulletins Nos. 1 to 4 the Institute of Actuaries AIDS Working Party presented projections of HIV infection and AIDS based on a model developed by Wilkie. This paper explores the sensitivity of those projections to the various different assumptions which have to be made and presents results on a number of alternative sets of assumptions.

1.1 In March 1987 the Futures Committee of the Institute considered a preliminary report (Daykin, 1987) on the possible impact of AIDS in the United Kingdom and the consequences for life insurance. The Committee recommended the setting up of a Working Party to study the problem. The Working Party on AIDS was accordingly established, under the auspices of the Research Committee. The authors of this paper formed the membership of the Working Party, under the chairmanship of C. D. Daykin.

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