Abstract. Results are presented from the first intercomparison of Large-eddy simulation (LES) models for the stable boundary layer (SBL), as part of the GABLS (Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Atmospheric Boundary Layer Study) initiative. A moderately stable case is used, based on Arctic observations. All models produce successful simulations, inasmuch as they reflect many of the results from local scaling theory and observations. Simulations performed at 1 m and 2 m resolution show only small changes in the mean profiles compared to coarser resolutions. Also, sensitivity to sub-grid models for individual models highlights their importance in SBL simulation at moderate resolution (6.25 m). Stability functions are derived from the LES using typical mixing lengths used in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and climate models. The functions have smaller values than those used in NWP. There is also support for the use of K-profile similarity in parametrizations. Thus, the results provide improved understanding and motivate future developments of the parametrization of the SBL.

SUMMARYLarge-eddy simulations of the development of shallow cumulus convection over land are presented. Many characteristics of the cumulus layer previously found in simulations of quasi-steady convection over the sea are found to be reproduced in this more strongly forced, unsteady case. Furthermore, the results are shown to be encouragingly robust, with similar results obtained with eight independent models, and also across a range of numerical resolutions. The datasets produced are already being used in the development and evaluation of parametrizations used in numerical weather-prediction and climate models.

The fifth intercomparison of the Global Water and Energy Experiment Cloud System Studies Working Group 1 is used as a vehicle for better understanding the dynamics of trade wind cumuli capped by a strong inversion. The basis of the intercomparison is 10 simulations by 7 groups. These simulations are supplemented by many further sensitivity studies, including some with very refined grid meshes. The simulations help illustrate the turbulent dynamics of trade cumuli in such a regime. In many respects the dynamics are similar to those found in many previous simulations of trade cumuli capped by weaker inversions. The principal differences are the extent to which the cloud layer is quasi-steady in the current simulations, evidence of weak countergradient momentum transport within the cloud layer, and the development and influence of an incipient stratiform cloud layer at the top of the cloud layer. Although many elements of the turbulent structure (including the wind profiles, the evolution of cloud-base height, the statistics of the subcloud layer, and the nature of mixing in the lower and middle parts of the cloud layer) are robustly predicted, the representation of the stratiform cloud amount by the different simulations is remarkably sensitive to a number of factors. Chief among these are differences between numerical algorithms. These sensitivities persist even among simulations on relatively refined grid meshes. Part of this sensitivity is attributed to a physically realistic positive radiative feedback, whereby a propensity toward higher cloud fractions in any given simulation is amplified by longwave radiative cooling. The simulations also provide new insight into the dynamics of the transition layer at cloud base. In accord with observations, the simulations predict that this layer is most identifiable in terms of moisture variances and gradients. The simulations help illustrate the highly variable (in both height and thickness) nature of the transition layer, and we speculate that this variability helps regulate convection. Lastly the simulations are used to help evaluate simple models of trade wind boundary layers. In accord with previous studies, mass-flux models well represent the dynamics of the cloud layer, while mixing-length models well represent the subcloud layer. The development of the stratiform cloud layer is not, however, captured by the mass-flux models. The simulations indicate that future theoretical research needs to focus on interface rules, whereby the cloud layer is coupled to the subcloud layer below and the free atmosphere above. Future observational studies of this regime would be of most benefit if they could provide robust cloud statistics as a function of mean environmental conditions.

[1] A new 46-year hindcast dataset for seasonal-to-annual ensemble predictions has been created using a multi-model ensemble of 5 state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean circulation models. The multi-model outperforms any of the single-models in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs because of reduced RMS errors and enhanced ensemble dispersion at all lead-times. Systematic errors are considerably reduced over the previous generation (DEMETER). Probabilistic skill scores show higher skill for the new multi-model ensemble than for DEMETER in the 4 -6 month forecast range. However, substantially improved models would be required to achieve strongly statistical significant skill increases. The combination of ENSEMBLES and DEMETER into a grand multi-model ensemble does not improve the forecast skill further. Annual-range hindcasts show anomaly correlation skill of $0.5 up to 14 months ahead. A wide range of output from the multi-model simulations is becoming publicly available and the international community is invited to explore the full scientific potential of these data. Citation: Weisheimer, A.,