Future decades will see dramatic increases in tobacco-attributable deaths in low- and middle-income regions. Although much of this excess mortality can be prevented if smokers stop smoking, quitting remains rare in low- and middle-income countries.
The objective of this study was to provide conservative estimates of the global and regional effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of tobacco control policies. Using a static model of the cohort of smokers alive in 1995, we estimated the number of smoking-attributable deaths that could be averted by: (1) price increases, (2) nicotine replacement therapy (NRT), and (3) a package of non-price interventions other than NRT. We calculated the cost-effectiveness of these policy interventions by weighing the approximate public-sector costs against the years of healthy life saved, measured in disability-adjusted life years, or DALYs. Even with deliberately conservative assumptions, tax increases that would raise the real price of cigarettes by 10% worldwide would prevent between 5 and 16 million tobacco-related deaths, and could cost 3-70 US dollars per DALY saved in low-income and middle-income regions. NRT and a package of non-price interventions other than NRT are also cost-effective in low-income and middle-income regions, at 280-870 US dollars per DALY and 36-710 US dollars per DALY, respectively. In high-income countries, price increases were found to have a cost-effectiveness of 83-2771 US dollars per DALY, NRT 750-7206 US dollars per DALY and other non-price interventions 696-13,924 US dollars per DALY. Tobacco control policies, particularly tax increases on cigarettes, are cost-effective relative to other health interventions. Our estimates are subject to considerable variation in actual settings; thus, local cost-effectiveness studies are required to guide local policy.
Health policy and systems research (HPSR) has been identified as critical to scaling-up interventions to achieve the millennium development goals, but research priority setting exercises often do not address HPSR well. This paper aims to (i) assess current priority setting methods and the extent to which they adequately include HPSR and (ii) draw lessons regarding how HPSR priority setting can be enhanced to promote relevant HPSR, and to strengthen developing country leadership of research agendas.Priority setting processes can be distinguished by the level at which they occur, their degree of comprehensiveness in terms of the topic addressed, the balance between technical versus interpretive approaches and the stakeholders involved. When HPSR is considered through technical, disease-driven priority setting processes it is systematically under-valued. More successful approaches for considering HPSR are typically nationally-driven, interpretive and engage a range of stakeholders. There is still a need however for better defined approaches to enable research funders to determine the relative weight to assign to disease specific research versus HPSR and other forms of cross-cutting health research.While country-level research priority setting is key, there is likely to be a continued need for the identification of global research priorities for HPSR. The paper argues that such global priorities can and should be driven by country level priorities.
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