In the world's water scarce regions, groundwater as an important and strategic resource needs proper assessment. An accurate forecasting needs to be performed in order to make a better identification of fluctuating nature of groundwater levels. In this study, groundwater level fluctuations of Kabudarahang aquifer was synchronized and verified. Investigation was conducted with usage and application of time series models. Groundwater level data during 2003-2014 are used for calibration and analyses were performed using Box-Jenkins models. Residual error analysis and comparison of observed and calculated groundwater levels were performed. Then a prediction model for groundwater level in Kabudarahang aquifer developed. The model was used for predicting the groundwater level during 2014-2017. Model results showed that the groundwater level in this aquifer will endure a 5 m decline for the next three upcoming years.

The shrinking of the former sixth largest salty lake in the world threatens the job security of farmers and life of inhabitants. We examined the capability of applying the optimal exchange of embedded water to release more water resources for the restoration of Lake Urmia. For this purpose, an optimization model is developed based on Kumar approach to maximize the income of the agricultural sector in the basin by deriving an optimal cropping pattern, embedded agricultural water imports and exports. Testing three cropping pattern policy discloses more income for the agriculture sector can be achieved by more flexible policy for cropping. The scenario which applies mild flexibility in cropping pattern policy and 80% availability of agricultural water, and scenario 6 which applies middle flexibility for cropping pattern policy and 60% availability of agricultural water are proposed for increasing the agricultural sector's income 7% and 21% and reducing water consumption in short term and long-term plans, respectively, for the restoration of the lake. These scenarios increase embedded agricultural water imports 164% and 161%, and decrease agricultural water use 20% and 40%, respectively. The model of this study can be future examined to restore drying lakes with high agricultural water use in their basins.