Aim. To evaluate the predictive potential of the parameters of complete blood count (CBC), lipid profile and their ratios for predicting obstructive coronary artery disease (oCAD) in patients with non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTEACS).Material and methods. The study included 600 patients with NSTE-ACS with a median age of 62 years who underwent invasive coronary angiography (CA). Two groups were formed, the first of which consisted of 360 (60%) patients with oCAD (stenosis ≥50%), and the second — 240 (40%) with coronary stenosis <50%. The clinical and functional status of patients before CAG was assessed by 33 parameters, including parameters of CBC, lipid profile and their ratio. For statistical processing and data analysis, the Mann-Whitney, Fisher, chi-squared tests, univariate logistic regression (LR) were used, while for the creation of predictive models, multivariate LR (MLR) was used. The quality was assessed by 4 metrics: area under the ROC curve (AUC), sensitivity (Se), specificity (Sp), and accuracy (Ac).Results. CBC and lipid profile analysis made it possible to identify factors that are linearly and non-linearly associated with oCAD. Univariate LR revealed their threshold values with the highest predictive potential. The quality metrics of the best prognostic model developed using MLR were as follows: AUC — 0,80, Sp — 0,79, Ac — 0,76, Se — 0,78. Its predictors were 8 following categorical parameters: age >55 years in men and >65 years in women, lymphocyte count (LYM) <19%, hematocrit >49%, immune-inflammation index >1000, high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) to low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) ratio <0,3, monocyte (MON)-to-HDL-C ratio >0,8, neutrophil (NEUT)-to-HDL-C ratio >5,7 and NEUT/LYM >3. The relative contribution of individual predictors to the development of end point was determined.Conclusion. The predictive algorithm (model 9), developed on the basis of MLR, showed a better quality metrics ratio than other models. The following 3 factors had the dominant influence on the oCAD risk: HDL-C/LDL-C (38%), age of patients (31%), and MON/HDL-C (14%). The influence of other factors on the oCAD risk was less noticeable.
Aim. To develop predictive models of obstructive coronary artery disease (OPCA) in patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS) based on the predictive potential of cardiometabolic risk (CMR) factors.Material and methods. This prospective observational cohort study included 495 patients with NSTE-ACS (median age, 62 years; 95% confidence interval [60; 64]), who underwent invasive coronary angiography (CAG). Two groups of persons were identified, the first of which consisted of 345 (69,6%) patients with OPCA (stenosis ≥50%), and the second — 150 (30,4%) without OPCA (<50%). The clinical and functional status of patients before CAG was assessed including 29 parameters. For data processing and analysis, the Mann-Whitney, Fisher, chi-squared tests and univariate logistic regression (LR) were used. In addition, for the development of predictive models, we used multivariate LR (MLR), support vector machine (SVM) and random forest (RF). The models was assessed using 4 metrics: area under the ROC-curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy.Results. A comprehensive analysis of functional and metabolic status of patients made it possible to identify the CMR factors that have linear and nonlinear association with OPCA. Their weighting coefficients and threshold values with the highest predictive potential were determined using univariate LR. The quality metrics of the best predictive algorithm based on an ensemble of 10 MLR models were as follows: AUC — 0,82, specificity and accuracy — 0,73, sensitivity — 0,75. The predictors of this model were 7 categorical (total cholesterol (CS) ≥5,9 mmol/L, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol >3,5 mmol/L, waist-to-hip ratio ≥0,9, waist-to-height ratio ≥0,69, atherogenic index ≥3,4, lipid accumulation product index ≥38,5 cm*mmol/L, uric acid ≥356 pmol/L) and 2 continuous (high density lipoprotein cholesterol and insulin resistance index) variables.Conclusion. The developed algorithm for selecting predictors made it possible to determine their significant predictive threshold values and weighting coefficients characterizing the degree of influence on endpoints. The ensemble of MLR models demonstrated the highest accuracy of OPCA prediction before the CAG. The predictive accuracy of the SVM and RF models was significantly lower.
Aim. To assess the predictive potential of electrocardiographic (ECG), echocardiographic, and lipid parameters for predicting obstructive coronary artery disease (oCAD) in patients with non-ST-elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS) prior to invasive coronary angiography (CA).Material and methods. This prospective observational cohort study included 525 patients with NSTE-ACS with a median age of 62 years who underwent invasive coronary angiography. Two groups were distinguished, the first of which consisted of 351 (67%) patients with oCAD (stenosis 50%), and the second — 174 (33%) without oCAD (<50%). Clinical and functional status of patients before CAG was assessed by 40 indicators. Mann-Whitney, Fisher, chi-squared, univariate logistic regression (LR) methods were used for data processing and analysis, while miltivariate LR (MLR), gradient boosting (XGBoost) and artificial neural networks (ANN) were used to develop predictive models. The quality of the models was assessed using 4 following metrics: area under the ROC curve (AUC), sensitivity (Se), specificity (Sp), and accuracy (Ac).Results. A comprehensive analysis of ECG, echocardiography and lipid profile parameters made it possible to identify factors that had linear and non-linear association with oCAD. LR were used to determine their weight coefficients and threshold values with the highest predictive potential. The quality metrics of the best predictive algorithm based on MLR were 0,81 for AUC, 0,74 for Sp and Ac, and 0,75 for Se. The predictors of this model were 4 categorical parameters (left ventricular (LV) ejection fraction of 42-60%, global LV longitudinal systolic strain <19%, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol >3,5 mmol/l, age >55 years in men and >65 years for women).Conclusion. The prognostic model developed on the basis of MLR made it possible to verify oCAD with high accuracy in patients with NSTE-ACS before invasive CA. Models based on XGBoost and ANN had less predictive value.
клиническая больница № 1". Владивосток; 3 ФГБНУ "Томский национальный исследовательский медицинский центр Российской академии наук". Томск, Россия В обзоре представлен анализ научной литературы по различным аспектам патогенеза -диагностики и лечения вазоспастической стенокардии (ВС). Приведены данные о распространенности спазма коронарных артерий (СКА) в различных популяциях, а также факторах риска и провоцирующих триггерах. Рассмотрены патофизиологические механизмы СКА, включающие гиперреактивность гладкомышечных клеток коронарных артерий, эндотелиальную дисфункцию, неспецифическое воспаление, окислительный стресс, дефицит магния, вегетативный дисбаланс и др. Подчеркнута взаимосвязь СКА с коронарным тромбозом и атеросклерозом коронарных артерий. Представлены современные алгоритмы диагностики и лечения ВС. Инвазивную верификацию СКА осуществляют путем проведения провокационных фармакологических тестов, которые имеют противопоказания. Ключевая роль в терапии ВС принадлежит антагонистам кальция и их комбинации с пролонгированными нитратами. К препаратам, имеющим перспективу применения при ВС, относят ингибиторы Rho-киназы, активаторы аденозинтрифосфат-чувствительных К + -каналов, антагонисты альфа-1-адренорецепторов. Обсуждаются особенности ведения больных с рефрактерной ВС и перспективы эндоваскулярного лечения. Отмечено, что больные ВС с многососудистым спазмом имеют более высокую вероятность развития жизнеугрожающих аритмий и внезапной смерти. Ключевые слова: вазоспастическая стенокардия, патофизиологические механизмы, алгоритмы диагностики и лечения.Отношения и деятельность. Работа выполнена при поддержке грантов РФФИ в рамках научных проектов № 18-29-03131, № 19-29-01077.
клиническая больница № 1". Владивосток; 3 ФГБНУ "Томский национальный исследовательский медицинский центр Российской академии наук". Томск, Россия В обзоре представлен анализ научной литературы по различным аспектам патогенеза -диагностики и лечения вазоспастической стенокардии (ВС). Приведены данные о распространенности спазма коронарных артерий (СКА) в различных популяциях, а также факторах риска и провоцирующих триггерах. Рассмотрены патофизиологические механизмы СКА, включающие гиперреактивность гладкомышечных клеток коронарных артерий, эндотелиальную дисфункцию, неспецифическое воспаление, окислительный стресс, дефицит магния, вегетативный дисбаланс и др. Подчеркнута взаимосвязь СКА с коронарным тромбозом и атеросклерозом коронарных артерий. Представлены современные алгоритмы диагностики и лечения ВС. Инвазивную верификацию СКА осуществляют путем проведения провокационных фармакологических тестов, которые имеют противопоказания. Ключевая роль в терапии ВС принадлежит антагонистам кальция и их комбинации с пролонгированными нитратами. К препаратам, имеющим перспективу применения при ВС, относят ингибиторы Rho-киназы, активаторы аденозинтрифосфат-чувствительных К + -каналов, антагонисты альфа-1-адренорецепторов. Обсуждаются особенности ведения больных с рефрактерной ВС и перспективы эндоваскулярного лечения. Отмечено, что больные ВС с многососудистым спазмом имеют более высокую вероятность развития жизнеугрожающих аритмий и внезапной смерти. Ключевые слова: вазоспастическая стенокардия, патофизиологические механизмы, алгоритмы диагностики и лечения.Отношения и деятельность. Работа выполнена при поддержке грантов РФФИ в рамках научных проектов № 18-29-03131, № 19-29-01077.
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